A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—3.1.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21751.35--High—21755.60—Low—21555.65--Close-21665.80 on 2.1.2024.

Support: 21607.05/21593/21505.05/21487/21472/21260.90/21078/21050/21037.90/20914.75/20751/20719/20599/20568.60/20475/20390/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19946/19875.25/19867.55/19849.75/19667/19645.50/19635.30/19627/19584.45/19523.40/19492.10/19480/19333.60/19329.10/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/19204.85/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21727.75/21731.40/21761/21801.45/21828/21834.35/21906/21974/22219/22463/22478/22590/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note but immediately started slipping down and finally ended the day with a loss of 76.10 points. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 21477.15 &20291) and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week starting from 1.1.2024 or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

The overall chart setup is good but it had down day today, please note that its critical points are 21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may trigger correction. It closed below all the three critical points today, which is concerning, but it has managed to close above its correction threshold points. Please note that break below 21631.97----21583.05---21346.82 & 21127.18(figure may change) will push it into very short, deep short, medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but it is suggested to defer buy on decline strategy for a while and watch how this down move culminates. 

It is very important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down in coming days, furthermore price action is also showing weak sign on and off and today it was weak, therefore all together it is concerning. However other parameters such as chart setup, moving average placements are o.k. as of now., therefore it can still continue the up move as long as it holds the level of 21631.97 & 21621.45 (figure may change) on the closing basis , else it may get into correction and moving down its important support points could be at 21607.05---21593---21583----21507---21406---21304---21260.90---21179---21148---21122---20976.80---20950.73---20769.50(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 21727.75---21731.40---21761---21777---21801.45---21828---21834.35---21906--21974(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE OVERALL TECHNICAL SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE BUT FEW TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE DISTINCTLY NEGATIVE WHICH IS CAUSING CONCERN AND CANNOT BE IGNORED OR TAKEN LIGHTLY TILL IT TURNS POSITIVE, BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF THIS IT MAY WITNESS MODERATE TO SHARP FALL ANY MOMENT AND LATEST BY 15-1-2024. SO BE ALERT, CAUTIOUS, VIGILLANT AND WATCHFUL IN THE LONG TRADE IT HAD A DOWN MOVE TODAY.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it closes above 21731.40 and sustain or can be tried if it holds 21631 & 21621 levels for some time with a stop loss of 21550. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline near or within the range of 21477----21450 with a stop loss of 21400.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21730—21760 with a stop loss of 21820 or sell below 21621 with a stop loss of 21728. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com