A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—28.11.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19809.60---High—19832.85--Low-19768.85--Close-19794.70 on 24.11.2023.

Support:19667/ 19645.50/19635.30/19627/19584.45/19523.40/19492.10/19480/19333.60/19329.10/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/19204.85/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18108.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25/17761.85/17553.95.

Resistance: 19849.75/19867.55/19875.25/19946/19991.85/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and had both side movements during the day in a short range but finally ended the day with a meager loss of 7.30 points. It is important to mention here that it has been moving within the bar it made on 16.11.2023 for the last 6 days (High—19875.25---Low---19627), therefore sustained breakout on either side will decide the further direction and it is likely to be a big move, which please note. It is still into deep short term correction mode for its earlier rise but the overall technical setup still looks good for the continuation of the on-going up move as of now. It is well above its first recent critical range of 19746---19675---19575----19484(figure may change every day) and most importantly it is well above its ultimate critical range of 19296---19223.60---19199---19165(figures may change) therefore as long as it holds the above mentioned range the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction, but break below the range of 19746---19675---19575----19484 could be highly concerning and can drag it down. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19849.75—19875.25---19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. 

Please note that all the five important technical indicators on the daily chart are positive now therefore the on-going up move can extend further provided it holds the key support range as mentioned above, furthermore four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are negative  and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore weekly & monthly chart indicators are still highly concerning and indicates that after the on-going up move exhaustion it may still witness deep fall in coming weeks/months because it is the up move within the downtrend till it closes above 19849.75 & 19875.25 and sustains. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive in the recent and it was weak today also, so watch out. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days.   Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short term correction mode is on and the meaningful pullback mode is also on. The  bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19849.75---19875.25---19896---19946--19991.85 (figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also, so be watchful. Please note that sustained close above 19849.75 & 19875.25 will put it into the strong up momentum track; else it may correct.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be -19746.44----19694---19662---19647---19630---19367----19329---19245----19223.60---19165---191--19077----18973.70---18887.60---18837.85---186---18604.45---18615---18350.95---18131.70----18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, break below 19746.44  will push it into very short correction mode for its recent rise, break below  19662----19647 & 19630 will push it into deep short correction mode for its recent rise, break below 19329 may accelerate the fall, sustained break below the range of 19296---19223.60---19199---19165 will trigger fresh fall,  sustained break below 18973.70 will weaken it further, sustained break below 18887.60 & 18837.85 will be an extreme alert point for further fall, sustained break below 186 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - The on-going up may extend further provided it holds the range of 19746---19675---19575----19484 and finally its most critical key point of 19223.65..Therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds the mentioned range. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 19223.65 and sustains. Please note that the on-going up move is just a pullback rally in corrective mode as of now and it may get into strong up momentum track only if it moves above 19849.75 & 19875.25 and sustains on the closing basis, else it may exhaust also at any point of time. So be watchful.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 19695----19670 with a stop loss of 19600. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on the sharp decline near or within the range of 19296--- 19223----19199 with a stop loss of 19160. Please note that long trade below 19694 could be a risky affair for the day.

2. Its long term uptrend is intact but it is still into deep short term correction mode but meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19875—19925 with a stop loss of 19965 for intraday corrective gains. It could be a risky trade.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com