A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—25.10.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19521.60---High—19556.85--Low-19257.85--Close-19281.75 on 23.10.2023.

Support: 19253.60/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18105.30/.

Resistance: 19296.45/19300/19303.60/19333.60/19361.75/19405/ 19421/19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and steadily moved down and finally ended the day near the low of the day with a huge loss of 260.90 points. Please note that today’s fall was terrible although it closed within its last critical range of 19300---19223.65, but today’s fall indicates that this range in all likelihood to be broken in coming days and if it does it may head for devastating fall in coming days. So this is make or break zone. It was already still into short term correction mode for its earlier rise and into short correction mode for its very recent rise also and today it slipped into deep medium term correction mode. It is below all its short & some medium term moving averages on the daily chart, below all short term moving averages on the weekly chart also, broken bottom on the line & bar chart, it is well below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 19486(figure may change) all these factor together are concerning and indicates further fall ahead. Please note that to give some hope of up move it has to close above 19486 and sustains, but to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19680& 19740(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850--19991.85 & 20030(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup has further weakened and on the daily chart all five important indicators are negative now and indicates further fall looks imminent, furthermore three out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and it was terribly weak today, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and if it does not stage sharp recovery in a day or two further fall looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19255---19234---19223.60---19103----18887.60---18521(figure may change) it may bounce back from these points, but sustained break below 19223.60 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it could be trend threatening also, break below 19103 will weaken it further, sustained break below 18887.60 will accelerate the fall and finally break below 18521 will severely threaten the long term uptrend, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19405---19421---19480.50---19486---19512.35---19517---19622.40---19626---19635.30---19638.30---19698---19740---19811---19838---19854---19986.73---19991.85---19995----20030---20201---20222.45(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - It had down move for the last four days and the price action has also been weak, so if it does not bounce back above 19486(figure may change) in a day or two and sustain on the closing basis and fall below 19223.60 then it can slip down further. Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18655 or lower levels. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19486 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 19223 with a stop loss of 19150. It could be a risky trade.

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is in correction mode now, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19500---19530 with a stop loss of 19580 or sell below 19223 with a stop loss of 19300.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com