A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.10.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---44571.55---High—44693.05---Low---44530.05---Close—44599.20 on 12.10.2023.

Support: 44566.30/44547.80/44539/44498.60/44459.25/44279.40/44254/44207.25/44182.50/44151.80/43950/  43862/43830.75/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance:44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note went higher but retreated from the upper level but finally ended the day with a gain of 82.30 points.  It got out of medium term correction mode but still into deep short term correction mode now for  earlier rise and please note that if it closes below 44495(figure may change) then it will get into short correction for its very recent rise. It is still below some of its short & medium term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, which is concerning. But it has crossed its recent top on the line & bar chart, furthermore it well above its  meaningful pullback threshold point of  44390(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend, but even if it breaks this mark but holds 44254 &44151.80 on the closing basis then the chances of up move will still be alive, else it may resume down move again. But to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 44800---44950---45816 & 45820(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that sustained close above 44800 & 44950 may help it for a steady up move.  The short term technical setup has improved a bit, furthermore on the daily chart one out of five important indicators is positive now therefore giving some ray of hope that up move may extend further, but few indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are also showing weakness as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, but the price action for the last three days has been good, which is a positive sign. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and if the positive price action continues then it may have steady up move; else it may correct again, so watch out price action. It is into deep short term correction now but the long term trend is still up.  

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44658---44757---44985---45054---45118---45311---45350---45671---45725---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

Kindly note that moving down from here the key support points could be 44539---44390---44254---44151.80---44146---43600.35---43446---43345.90---43038.25---42986.45---42881(figure may change)  break below 44539 will it into deep medium term correction mode, sustained break below 44390---44254---44151.80 & 44146 may dampen the possibility of an up move, may threaten the long term uptrend as well and fall may accelerate, break  43600.35 will be an alert point for further fall, sustained break below 43345.90 on the closing basis  will trigger fresh fall and it could be trend threatening also and finally sustained break below 43038.25---42986.45 & 42881 may end the possibility of a steady up move for a while, which please note.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- technically it is on a weak footing in comparison with CNX-Nifty at this point of time, so it may under-perform.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it  moves above  44640 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 44520 or  can buy on decline near or within the range of 44360---44152 with a stop loss of 44000.

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short and medium correction mode now, but pullback mode is also on today, even then short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44850---44880 with a stop loss of 44960 or sell below 44490 with a stop loss of 44600.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.