A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—29.9.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-19761.80---High—19766.65--Low-19492.10--Close-19523.55 on 28.9.2023.

Support: 19491.50/19482.75/19467.50/19465/19458.55/19405/19361.75/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19253.60/19245/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55.

Resistance: 19523.60/19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19645.50/19657.50/ 19795.60/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45/20245/20285/20390/20467/20500/20568/20760.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

 It opened with an up gap but could not move much further and steadily moved down and in the late afternoon plunged down sharply and finally ended the day with a loss of 192.90 points. It is already into short term correction mode for its recent rise. It is below some of its short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below some short term averages on the weekly chart also which is a weak sign and indicates that further fall may be ahead with in between short relief rallies. It did closed shade above its pullback threshold point (19712) yesterday but could not sustain it today, this indicates weak undertone. Please note that to get into pullback mode again it has to close above 19665(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then there is a hope that the up move may extend, else down move may continue. But to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 19838 & 19991.85 and then above 20077(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup has weakened, furthermore on the daily chart all the five important indicators are negative now therefore down move is likely to continue, few indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are also showing weakness as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, yesterday it showed some improvement in price action but today it was terribly bad as it closed below its previous day’s low. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and look for higher highs & lows for at least 2-3 days then the trend may reverse, else down move can continue, so watch out price action. It is into short correction mode now but the long term trend is up.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19492.10---19451---19421(figure may change) break below 19421 will push it into deep medium term corrective mode and it may slide down further and then the next strong support range would be between 19300—19255---19234---19223.60. It is important to mention here that sustained break below 19223.60 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated down move and most importantly it could be trend threatening also, which may please be noted

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19608---19665---19698---19723---19771---19811---19838---19857---19944---19986.73---19991.85---20050----20077---20201---20222.45(figure may change), Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - It is into short correction mode, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 19991.85 and sustain. Please note that long trade could be risky affair till correction is on but can be tried intraday at critical support points for pullback gains only. It can get out of correction once it closes above 19986.73 and sustain. Long trade below 19492 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above its pullback threshold point of 19665 at least and sustains. But aggressive traders can try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 19300---19230 with a stop loss of 19180.  

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19670---19720 with a stop loss of 19770 or sell if it moves below19490 with a stop loss of 19540.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com