A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—25.9.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-19744.85---High—19798.65--Low-19657.50--Close-19674.25 on 22.9.2023.

Support: 19657.50/19645.50/ 19615.95/19584.45/19563.10/19523.60/19482.75/19467.50/19465/19458.55/19405/19361.75/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19253.60/19245/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55.

Resistance: 19795.60/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45/20245/20285/20390/20467/20500/20568/20760.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It fell for the 4^th day in a row and it opened on a flat note and had both side movement during the day and finally ended the day and the ongoing week near the low with a loss of 68.10 points, which is highly concerning. It is already into short term correction mode for its recent rise. It is below some of its short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart which is a weak sign and indicates that further fall may be ahead may be with short relief rallies. Please note that for the reasonable or good pullback up move it has to move above 19791(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis but to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 19991.85 and then 20109.50(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else the down move may continue. However, for the week stating from 25.9.2023 if it manages to hold 19657.50 (figure may change) on the closing basis then there is some hope that it could still stage a pullback recovery. The short term technical setup has weakened, furthermore on the daily chart all the five important indicators are negative now therefore down move is likely to continue, few indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are also showing weakness as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and if it does not improve fast then further downside is wide open. It is into short correction mode now but the long term trend is up.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19657.50---19605---19451---19421(figure may change) break and close below 19657.50 could be a weak sign and fall may  accelerate and break below 19421 will push it into deep medium term corrective mode and it may slide down further and then the next strong support range would be between 19300—19255---19234---19223.60.It is important to mention here that sustained break below 19223.60 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated down move ,which may please be noted

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19698---19791---19811---19838---19986.73---19991.85---20007----20089---20109.50---20222.45(figure may change), Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - It is into short correction mode now, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 19991.85 and sustain, therefore long trade could be risky thing till correction is on and it can get out of corrective mode if it closes above 19986.73, but long trade can be tried intraday at critical support points for pullback gains only. Long trade below 19657.50 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19791 at least.  But aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 19657.50 levels for some time with a stop loss of 19600.

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into correction mode now, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19780---19810 with a stop loss of 19850 or if it moves below19657 with a stop loss of 19720.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.