A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—22.9.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---45179.60---High—45276.80---Low---44592.45---Close—44623.85 on 21.9.2023.

Support:-44547.80/44539/44498.60/44459.25/44279.40/44254/44207.25/44151.80/ 43950/43862/43830.75/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance:44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50/ 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.           

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap for the 2^nd day in a row and recovered a bit in first hour of trading but could not sustain and steadily moved down and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 700.85 points. It witnessed sharp fall in the last two days this is showing gross weakness in it and indicates that further fall may be ahead. It is already into deep short term correction mode for its recent gains.  It is below some of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below some medium term moving averages also and way below its recent bottom on the line chart also which is concerning and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in next 2-3 trading sessions and moves above 44998 (figure may change) at least and then above 45250(figure may change) & 45816 and sustain on the closing basis then the correction is likely to continue. However, if it manages to hold 44254 & 44151.80on the closing basis then there is some hope that it could stage a pullback, else down move may continue. The short term technical setup has weakened, furthermore on the daily chart three out of five important indicators are negative now and if price action does not improve fast others indicators may also turn negative, on the weekly& monthly chart also few indicators are giving weak signal  as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action can be disastrous. The price action weakened on 18.9.2023 and it created havoc in the market in the last two days. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and if it does not improve in next 2-3 trading sessions then further downside is wide open. It is into deep short correction mode now but the long term trend is up.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44998—45118---45671---45782.75---45816---46310.40---46369.50---46761---47063---47123---47284---47427---47755(figure may change) Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again. It seems that rally has exhausted for now and to give a hope of a pullback rally it has close above 44998 and sustain on the closing basis and to  put it back on the up momentum track it has to close above 45816 & 45967(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

Kindly note that moving down from here the  key support points could be 44539---44254---44151.80(figure may change) break below 44539 will push it into deep long term corrective mode but if it holds 44254 & 44151.80 on the closing basis then the hope of  up move will still  be alive ,but break below 44151.80 on the closing basis may dampen the possibility of continuation of the up move and it may slide down and then the next strong support range would be between 43972----43600----43446---43345. Break below 43972(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend and break below 43345 may trigger fresh fall.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- It is already into deep short corrective mode , therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 45816 and sustain, therefore trying long trade could be risky thing till correction is on but it can be tried at critical support points for pullback gains. Long trade below 44539 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 44998 at least.  But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 44254---44151 with a stop loss of 44000.  

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it has slipped into deep short corrective mode  today, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49995----45100 with a stop loss of 45250 or sell if it moves below 44539 with a stop loss of 44750.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.