A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—16.8.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-19383.95--High—19465.85-Low-19257.90--Close-19434.55 on 14.8.2023.

Support:19412.75/19361.75/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19245/19257.90/19234.40/18887.60.

Resistance: 19467.50/19523.60/19563.10/19615.95/19645.50/19660/19795.60/19867.55/19887.40/19991.85.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap and went down further but as envisaged it recovered sharply from the expected range of 19303—19234(see my post for 14.8.2023) and ended the day with a meager gain of 6.25 points. The short term technical setup and technical indicators are weak on the daily chart and it is already into correction mode, therefore likely to go down further in coming days, moving down it may hold the range of 19303—19234 for a while again but eventually likely to break this range and may slide further this is what important technical indicators are pointing as of now. The good point today was that it closed a shade above its pullback threshold point of 19431(figure may change) and if it sustains above this level on the closing basis then there is some hope that it can move up further from here, else down move will continue. Please note that for the steady up movement it has to moves above 19650(figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term bias is down but the long term uptrend is still intact as of now.

Moving down from here its support points could be at 19431---19412.75---19303.60—19300----19296.45---19245----19234.40---18887.60--18575(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again. It is already into correction mode and break below each support point will weaken it further, break below 19412 will trigger fall again, break below the range of 19303.60---19234.40 will push it into deep and long corrective mode and may trigger fresh fall, break below 18887.60 may accelerate the fall and finally break below 18575(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend which may please be noted. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19468---19497---19568---19599---19645.50---19650---19712---19819---19845(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally can fizzle out also. Please note that it may resume the steady up move again if it closes above 19650(figure may change) and sustain.   

IMPORTANT NOTE:-Long trade below 19412 could be a risky bet for the day. Please note that as of now technical Indicators are pointing towards moderate to sharp fall in coming days/weeks and it can possibly hit the range of 19000---18700 on the downside. Since it is in correction mode, therefore it is sell on the rise market for now, so it is suggested to avoid long trade for the time being, but can be tried at critical support points for pullback gains with strict stop losses.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or if it closes above 19650. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 19303---19250 but not below it with a stop loss of 19220 or if it holds 19431 for some time with a short stop loss of 19380. Please note that long trade could be a risky bet in correction mode but worth trying at critical support range for pullback gains..

2. It is still in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into correction mode now, therefore short trade should be attempted on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19560----19585 with a stop loss of 19650 or if it moves below 19412 with a stop loss of 19470.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.