A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—2.5.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17950.40--High—18089.15--Low-17885.30---Close-18065 on 28.4.2023.

Support: 18016/18013/17992/17972.20/17959.20/17916.80/17812/17800/17795.55/17774.25/17761.40/17719.75/ 17680/17641/17597.95/17594/ 17574.05/17553.95/17529.90/ 17493.55/17484/17452.90/17421.80/17405.55/17353.40/17342.10/17326.10/17306/17255.20/17175/17166/17161/17058/17044/17035/16950/16888/16850.15/16836—833---828.35---809/16747.70/16438.75/16410.20.

Resistance:  18105.30/18114.65/18132/18141/18183.75/18210.15/18265.25/18350.95/18362.60/18442.15/18473.35/18604.45/16696.10/18887.60.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It continued the vertical rise for the 5^th day in a row today and closed with a gain of 149.95 points. Please note that the vertical rise makes it vulnerable for correction and sometimes vertical rise may have vertical fall too, therefore correction can happen any day, so be alert and cautious on the straight rise. However it is showing good strength now, furthermore it has made inverse head & shoulder pattern and it had given upside breakout from the neckline yesterday which is a highly bullish sign and the maximum up target of this pattern could be 18890, but at times there may be pattern failures also, but if it sustain above the neckline which is placed at 17890(figure will scale up every day) for the day and hold the other most critical support point of 17841(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the up move will continue with in between correction, else it may start to drift down.

As you are already aware that it is still into the deep corrective mode but strong up move is on, therefore moving up from here it will face stiff resistance at 18105.30---18132---18135---18201.25---18265.25---18362.60---18402---18476. It can correct at any of these points or earlier also and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the rally also, but if it moves above 18132 and sustain on the closing basis then it will be on the fast up momentum track and possibly will get out of the all corrective mode also, the complete correction completion points are 18013 & 18362.60 and it has already crossed 18013 level today, which is a positive sign and finally if it moves above 18476 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 18887.60 or may go beyond it also, which please note. The bias is bullish as of now.

Similarly moving down its critical support points would be at 17962.85----17890---17842.47---17841---17797---17766----17707.55---17639---17619--- 17553.95----17452(figure will change every day) ---17315. Please note that break below 17962.85 will push it into short correction mode for its recent rise, sustained break below the neckline of 17890(figure will change every day) will be an inverse H&S pattern failure, which would be weak sign , sustained break below 17841(figure will change every day) may indicate fatigue and exhaustion of the up move, break below 17812 &17791(figures may change) will push it into  medium and deep correction mode for its recent rise, break below 17553.95 may trigger fresh fall, break below 17452 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and may accelerate the fall and finally break below 17315 will end the possibility of the major pullback up move hope for good and fall may continue with in between short relief rallies. Therefore 17315 is the last key support point as of now. In light of above observation it is suggested to avoid long trade if it closes below 17890 & 17841(figure will change every day) else it is buy on decline market with caution.

In view of the above , long trade can be tried if it moves above 18090 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 18000 or can buy on decline near 17890 but not below it with a stop loss of 17820. Since it is still into deep corrective mode therefore short trade can also be tried on the rise at appropriate points or on price breakdown for the intraday gains but with due caution because the up momentum is strong now.  The long term bias is showing marked improvement and chart setup is also looking good, short term technical setup is nicely poised now and likely to move up further, provided it holds the key support point of 17890 & 17841 as mentioned above. Do not trade without proper stop loss.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.