A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—27.3.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17076.20--High—17109.45--Low-16917.35---Close-16945.05 on 24.3.2023.

Support: 16888/16850.15/16836—833---828.35---809/16747.70/16438.75/16410.20.

Resistance: 16950/17035/17044/17058/17166---17161/17175/17255.20/17306/17326.10/17342.10/17353.40/17405.55/17421.80/17452.90/17484/17493.55/17529.90/17565/17594/ 17641/ 17680/ 17719.75/ /17761.40/17774.25/17795.55/17812/17916.80/17959.20/17972.20/17992/18016/18105.30/18114.65/18132/18141/18183.75/18210.15/18265.25/18350.95/18442.15/18473.35/18604.45/16696.10/18887.60.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

It exhibited volatility and hit a high of 17207.25 during the week but eventually ended the week on 24.3.2023 with a loss of 155 points over the previous week’s close. The undertone is tremendously weak and it is expected to move down in coming week/months.

The overall technical setup and price action is weak but once a while it surprises with an up move which does not sustain. Please note that it is still into deep corrective mode and well below its long term moving average range which is placed between 17842---17371(figures will change every day) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and some are below on the monthly chart also, almost all important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart except for one key indicator which is positive therefore it gives a glimmer of hope that it could still move up , but as it closed below its short pullback trigger point of 17058 today therefore it indicates that pullback up move has possibly ended for now and it may continue to move down with intermittent short relief rallies. It is most important to mention here that the technical indicators are already negative as of now on the weekly & monthly chart pointing that it could break 16100 levels or can go below it also in coming weeks/months, which is highly concerning. But please note that as long as it holds it critical support range of 16915---16850---16828---16809---16747.70 there is a hope that it could bounce back from this range, but here I reiterate once again that looking at the weekly & monthly technical indicators signal as of now it is pointing that holding the above range seems less likely for a longer period of time and will break it eventually, but don’t be extraordinarily bearish till it breaks 16474.70 levels and sustain on the closing basis.. Please note that sustained break below 16747.70 on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, so be alert and watchful.

Moving up it will face stiff resistance at 16950---16986---17058---17145.60---17175---17213---17253---17315---17371---17437---17565---17576---17629(these points could be possible sell point also).Up move if any can exhaust at any of these points or earlier also.  Please note that 17058 & 17315(the figures will be scaled down if it breaks 16828.35) are the short and major pullback trigger points and if it moves above 17058 and sustain than a feeble up move could be there, sustained close above 17175 may indicate that it may be inching towards correction completion, but a strong, meaningful and lasting pullback up move can only be expected if it moves above 17315 & 17371(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. It will gain potential strength for the strong up momentum once it moves above its long term moving average range and sustain on the closing basis.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode and you are well aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware. The bias is hugely bearish as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.