A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY —27.2.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open-40259.10-High-40348.10-Low-39818.90-Close-39909.40 on 24.2.2023.

Support:-39848.85/39759.15/39424.85/39419.80/39258.25/39197.20/38765.85/38437.95/38426.65/37950---943/37581.05/37386.35..

Resistance: 40148.80/40160.20/40288.90/40509/40819.15/40882.70/41095.10/41569.45/41643.90/41677.65/41729/41791.95/41829.60/41840.15/41877/41979.10/42015.65/42202.55/42555.15/42622.75/42716.80/42740/42880/42948/42986.45/43038.25/43081/43339.15/43498.05/43515.05/43578.40/43614.65/43853.40/44151.80.                       

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

It fell down for four days during the week ended on 24.2.2023 and with a loss of 1222.35 points on the closing basis, which is a very weak sign. Since it has been falling for few days, therefore a short relief rally can happen any time but that may not be lasting.

It is into deep corrective mode and still within the range of its long term moving average which is placed between 41147---38932(figures will change every day, this  is very strong support range) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily chart and some are below on the weekly chart also, almost all important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and you are well aware that indicators are already weak on the weekly and monthly chart,  lastly and most importantly it is well below its major pullback trigger point of  40537(the trigger points will be scale down once it breaks its recent low of 39419.80) which indicates end of the rally. It is below its downtrend line also. The overall technical setup is very weak. Therefore please note that if does not bounce back sharply in next 3-4 trading session (chances of which looks bleak at this point of time) and move above some of its critical points as mentioned below and sustain then the accelerated fall looks inevitable in coming days and it could go down to 38650 levels or below also. However, short relief rally can happen in between the fall. The bias is bearish.

Moving down it will find support at 39600.25---39419.80---38932---38739 38221(these points could be possible buying points also), 39487---38739 range is the strong support range, but please note that 38932(lower band of the long term moving average) & 38739 is the last key support for the time being and sustained break below it could trigger fresh fall and finally 37386.35 is the very critical and most important support point and sustained break below it on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, which may be kept in mind, so 38932---38739 & 37386.35 are the key support points.

Similarly moving up it will find resistance at 39970---40162---40283---40537---40790---41070---41352---41418---41567---41681---41786---42016---42215---42347---42555.15----42986.45---43039(these points could be possible sell point also), please note if it moves above 40162( this figure will be scaled down if it breaks 39600.25 intraday) it may trigger short pullback rally but reasonable and good pullback rally can only be expected if it moves above 40537(figure can change) and sustain on the closing basis as of now. Please note that it has to move above 43039 and sustain on the closing basis to put it back on the strong up track mode, but looking at the just concluded week’s performance chances of strong upside moves looks pretty bleak during the week starting from 27.2.2023 at this point of time.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode therefore pullback move can fizzle out abruptly. Please do not trade without stop loss.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.