CNX-NIFTY
Open-16798.05--High—17187.10--Low-16747.70---Close-17094.35
on 30.9.2022.
Support: 17003/16995/16894/16891.70/16888.70/16824.70/16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.
Resistance: 17140/17291/17298/17345.20/17354.05/17387.15/17429.70/17484.30/17490.70/17530.85/17639.50/
17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18096.15/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329.
(Bold and underlined figures
are most important)
It opened on a flat
to negative note and then slipped down but recovered smartly during the day and
finally ended the day with a good gain of 276.25
points. It is into medium term
correction mode and after seven days of strait fall as expected it bounced back
and closed above its important pullback threshold points of 17024 &
17066(figures may change) and if it sustains above these points on the closing basis
then the pullback rally may extend further and it can move up to
17195.25—17263---17291---17333.50--17422, please note that pullback rally may
end at any of these points or earlier also or it is for sure to end if it
breaks below 17024 and sustain on the closing basis and then it may resume down
move again.
It is looking weak on the technical chart as it is below all its short term moving averages
on the daily chart , below some medium and long term moving averages also, it
is well below its major down trend line , it is making lower top & bottom
on the line and bar chart both, decisively below its rising trend line and most importantly it is decisively below
its most critical point of 17387.15
& 17354.05 all together these
are extremely weak indications which can surely drag it down further in
the coming days. It is important to
mention here that its long term moving averages are placed in the range of 17086—16774(figure
will change every day), which is a very strong support area and after staying
within the range for the last two days it bounced back above it today, it may
retest this range again may be couple of times and bounce back too but it is
very much likely to break this range eventually this is what technical
indicators suggest as of now. Please note that break below 17086 will be an alert sign for the
long term uptrend and sustained and break below 16774 may put the long term uptrend in potential danger and it may
witness accelerated fall, which may please be noted. Please note that to get
into the up grove again it has to sustain above the long term moving average range
of 17086---16774 figure will change
every day), and then move above its critical point of 17354.05 & 17387.15 and sustain on the closing basis then there
will be some ray of hope for resuming the up move again else down move may continue
with intermittent short relief rallies.
The long term technical
setup is threatened so be watchful, it is already into medium term correction
mode, furthermore all the four important technical indicators are distinctly
weak, which is highly concerning. Please note that if these indicators do not
improve fast it can drag it down further and it can improve only if it gives
good and sustained up move for the next few day, it did stage a sharp recovery
today but looking at last few days price movement it seems less likely that it
could continue with the up move with today’s pace, therefore as of now further fall
looks inevitable in coming days after the on-going pullback rally is exhausted.
It is important to mention here that the
indicators as of now suggest that it could hit 16500 levels or may be much
lower levels in coming days/weeks/months. The undertone is bearish as of
now.
In view of the above observation, it
is into medium term correction mode. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on
the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy till a visible sign of
correction completion emerges. But today it closed above its pullback threshold
point of 17024 & 17066 so the pullback
rally may extend if it hold these points, therefore those who wish to take
advantage of the pullback gains can try long trade if it maintains above 17086 for some time with a stop loss of
17000. Please note that in general
long trade in a corrective market for pullback gains could a risky affair
because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly
trapping the traders unaware but it can be tried at the most critical points.
It is suggested to sell on the rise near or within the range of 17240—17280 with a stop loss of 17390 or sell if it moves below 17024 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 17100. It is into medium term
correction mode now and long term trend is also severely threatened. So watch
out and be extremely careful in long trades.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
m for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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