Commodities

Sunday, 18 September 2022

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—19.9.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17796.80--High—17820.05--Low-17497.25---Close-17530.85 on 16.9.2022.

Support: 17490.70/17485.70/17387.15/17354.05/17345.20/17298/17140/17003/16995/16894/16891.70/16888.70/16824.70/16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: 17639.50/17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329..

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap and then steadily moved down and ended the day near the low of the week with a substantial loss of 346.55 points. It is important to mention here that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in next 3-4 trading session which is technically possible then it could come up to 17862 level, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, which please note.

It was already below its critical point of 18114.65 & 17920 and today it has decisively broken its short term moving averages and broken its recent bottom of 17624.40 & 17539.45 on the line chart and most importantly closed well below its major down trend line, all these development together is highly concerning and the uptrend may be in jeopardy now. Today’s move was devastating and indicate that further fall is ahead, however to get back into the up grove again it has to move above at least the range of 17685---17830(this range will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis and then to pick up strong up momentum it has to move above its critical points of 17920 &18114.65 and sustain on the closing basis in the next 3-4 trading session else down move will continue with in between short relief rallies. Moving down further from here it has bed of strong support in the range of 17408.74---17387.15---17377---17354.05---17345.20 and then important support at double bottom of 17166--17161 you would recall that it has bounced back from this range recently couple of times; therefore till it holds this range chances of regaining the up move may still be alive, but sustained break below this range on the closing basis may begin a steady down move and break below the double bottom of 17166—17161  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

The overall technical setup has got a big jolt today and it has slipped into moderately deep correction mode, furthermore all the important technical indicators have turned weak on the daily chart, which is highly concerning and can surely drag it down if these indicators does not improve fast and it can only improve if it gives sustained sharp up moves for the next 3-4 trading session in a row, but that seems less likely to happen looking at today’s move. So be watchful in the long trade. 

In view of the above observation, it is still into long term uptrend but slipped into deep short term correction mode therefore please note that it has turned sell on the rise market now; so it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 17680---17750 with a stop loss of 17800 or sell if it moves below 17490 with a stop loss of 17550 and then sell below 17345 with a stop loss of 17415. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline near or within the range of 17408.74---17387.15---17377---17354.05---17345.20 with a stop loss of 17280 and then near 17160 with a stop loss of 17070 for pullback gains. Please note that long trade in a corrective market for pullback gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware. It is into deep corrective mode in the short term, so watch out how this correction culminates, but the medium and the long term trend is still up as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

 

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