A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR-7.3.2022—11.3.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—16339.45--High—16456—Low—16133.80---Close-16245.35 on 4.3.2022.

Support:16203.25/16162.55/16133.80/15962.25—901/15635.95/15578/15513.45/15450.90/15431/15336/15044/14984/14591.40.                             

Resistance: -16349.95/16376.75/16410/16565.60/16701.65/16782.40/16809.65/16815.90/16836.80/16891.70/17043.65/17216.10/17326/17354.05/17387.15/17452.90/17490.60/17613.15/17639.50/17794.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

The technical setup has further weakened during the week under review i.e. 28.2.2022 to 4.3.2022 and it has ended near the low of the week which is a bad sign. It is already into medium term correction mode and way below its, long term moving averages and other long term key points, which is highly concerning and indicate that long term uptrend is already in real danger now, furthermore the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine is also taking a toll on the entire world‘s financial market, therefore further fall looks imminent till this war crisis ends. Moving down its last critical support points could be at 16203.25---16180---16130---15986.42, break below 16130 will severely  weaken it and sustained break below 15986.42 on the closing basis will push it into long term correction mode which could last few weeks or months and it may witness an accelerated fall . Therefore the range of 16203—15986 could be considered as important or value range for now. Similarly moving up its critical resistance points would be at 16295---16395---16454---16475---16555---16600---16655---16682---16717---16816---16972---17080, please note that if it moves above 16295 and sustain on the closing basis then it may give a feeble up move, if it moves above 16454 it could give a slightly better pullback up move, if it moves above 16635 and sustain then it will keep the hope alive for the uptrend to resume and finally if it moves above 16717( this figure will be scale downward if current low of 16133.80 is breached) and sustain on the closing basis then it could give reasonable to decent pullback up move but please keep in mind that pullback up moves can fizzle out at any of the above mentioned points.   

It is already into medium term corrective mode now and some important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart which indicates that further fall from here looks inevitable off course with in between short relief rallies, if the price do not improve sharply and move above at least some of its critical and important points. However as long as it holds the range of 16203—15986 the hope of bouncing back would be there, but it will  show some feeble strength  only if it moves above 16635 and sustain on the closing basis, else it will moves sideways to downward. The overall technical setup is terribly weak therefore the bias is hugely bearish as of now.   

In view of the above observation for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade completely for now, however aggressive traders can try long trade in the range of 16203---15986 with a stop loss of 15900 for a possible pullback up move but please note that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and could fizzle out abruptly also, so be alert and careful in the long trade. Please note that I would personally avoid the long trade in corrective market. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till it gives visible indication of correction completion.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.