A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR-28.2.2022—4.3.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—16515.65--High—16748.80—Low—16478.30---Close-16658.40 on 25.2.2022.

Support:16565.60/16410/16376.75/16349.95/16203.25/16162.55/15962.25—901/15635.95--513.           

Resistance: -16701.65/16782.40/16809.65/16836.80/16891.70/17043.65/17216.10/17326/17354.05/17387.15/17452.90/17490.60/17613.15/17639.50/17794.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

As you are already aware that it was in a corrective mode and still it is in (see my last post) and it reacted sharply on 24.2.2022 because of Russia and Ukraine war news breaking all the critical points on the downside but it bounced back the next day and managed to close above its important & critical point of 16610(figure will change every day + or- 2-3 points). Please note that the long term uptrend is already threatened but if it moves and sustained below 16610 on the closing basis then long term uptrend will be in real danger. Furthermore moving down its last critical support points could be at 16507---16410---16203.25---15986.42, break below 16507 will further weaken it and sustained break below 15986.42 on the closing basis will push it into long term correction mode which could last few weeks or months. Therefore the range of 16600—15986 could be considered as important or value range for now. Similarly moving up its critical resistance points would be at 16770---16847---17000---17120---17187---17388---17404---17687---18068---18124, please note that if it moves above 16770 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it could give a reasonable to decent pullback up move but please keep in mind that pullback up move can fizzle out at any of the above mentioned points also but if it moves and sustain above 17388 & 17491 then it would show some strength for the up momentum to continue, else down move will continue with in between short relief rallies.   

It is already into medium term corrective mode now and some important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart which indicates that fall further looks imminent from here ,if price do not improve sharply and move above at least some of its critical and important points. However as long as it holds the range of 16610—15986 the hope of bouncing back from this range would always be there. But the overall technical setup is weak, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out as of now.   

In view of the above observation for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade completely for now, however aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 16610 for some time with a stop loss of 16500 for a possible pullback up move but please note that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and could fizzle out abruptly also, so be alert and careful in the long trade. As of now it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till it gives visible indication of correction completion.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.