A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR---22.12.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—16773.15--High—16936.40—Low—16688.25---Close-16770.85 on 21.12.2021.

Support:16701.85/16565/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.                                                           

Resistance: -16782.40/16891.70/17055/17216.10/17254.20/17326.10/17436.50/17452.90/17489.80/17543.25/17600.60/17613.15/ 17639.50/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/18342.05/18604.50.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After yesterday severe fall it opened on a positive note today and went up further but could not sustain at the upper level and slipped down, however finally it closed with a gain of 156.65 points. It was just a pullback bounce but in this process it has filled the yesterday’s gap by 71%, so the gap filling fear may be over and it may resume the down move but moving up gap point of 16966 will pose as stiff resistance. It is into medium term correction mode, it is decisively  below its long term uptrend upholding threshold point of 17004(figure will change for the next day) but within its first range of critical support lower end 16955---16735(figure will change for the next day), all these are very weak indication and its long term uptrend is in jeopardy now and if it remains below its long term uptrend upholding threshold point of 17004(figure will change for the next day) then it may be heading for moderate to big fall in coming days. However moving down from here its last important and critical support range would be between 16390---16168---15986.42(figure may change for the next day), please note that it may stage a bounce back from this range but sustained break below 16168 will put the long term uptrend in real danger and sustained break below 15986.42 will push into long term correction mode and may put an end to the long term uptrend for some time which should be kept in the back of the mind. The overall technical setup at this point of time indicates that the last support range is likely to be broken in coming days. Please note that to keep the hope of long term uptrend intact or alive it has to maintain above 16168---15986.42(figure may change for the next day) on the closing basis but it will get some strength or chance of getting back some up momentum only if sustains above 17004(figure will change for the next day) on the closing basis. Please note that it could be the beginning of a bear market and sustained break below 16168 & 15986.42 will be the part confirmation of it and finally sustained break below 14883.56 which is a bear market threshold point will confirm it. Therefore these points should be considered as potential support points.

Similarly moving up from here it will face stiff resistance in the range of 16820---17004---17275(figure may change for the next day), sustained move above 17004 may give some strength for the up move and sustained close above 17275 may help it to pick up momentum. But it seems slightly difficult to cross this range in coming days instead chances of moving down looks much greater at this point of time. However its short and long term pullback threshold point is at 16700.31 & 16928(figures may change), so sustained close above 16700.32 may give mild pullback up move and sustained close above 16928 may give moderate to reasonable pullback up move. Since it closed above 16700.31 and as long as it hold this mark on the closing basis there is a chance of mild pullback up move to continue.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is into medium term correction mode it is below its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, it is also below its medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below some on the weekly chart also and most importantly it is way below some of its long term parameters and below some of its long term moving averages also, so all together these are very weak indication and pointing towards further fall ahead in coming days, provided it remains below its critical points. Please note that few important technical indicators which were giving positive indication until 17.12.2021 has also turned completely negative on 20.12.2021 and it is already negative on the weekly chart for some time, therefore further fall from here look inevitable off course with in between short relief rallies, if it does not bounce back above its key price levels in the next few days. The short and medium term trend is drastically weak and the long term uptrend also looks in trouble now therefore the overall bias looks tremendously weak as of now.

In view of the above, it slipped into medium term correction mode now and knocking on to disturb the long term uptrend, therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion emerges. However  aggressive can try long trade if it moves above 16782.40 and maintain for some time or on the sharp decline near the lower end of the range of 16390---16168---15986.42(figure may change) but not below 16168. I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode for pullback gains could be a risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious and vigilant in the long trade at this point of time. It is suggested to avoid long trade for now. It is still in corrective mode; therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near the lower end of the range 16390---16168---15986.42 but not below 16168 with a stop loss of 16100. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 16782.40 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 16740. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 16940—16970 with a stop loss of 17020. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 16614 with a stop loss of 16660. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 16782.40 for some time with a stop loss of 16830. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.