CNX-NIFTY
Open—16824.25--High—16840.10—Low—16410.20---Close-16614.20
on 21.12.2021.
Support:16565/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.
Resistance: -16701.85/16782.40/16891.70/17055/17216.10/17254.20/17326.10/17436.50/17452.90/17489.80/17543.25/17600.60/17613.15/
17639.50/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/18342.05/18604.50.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with a big down gap and
plunged down further and finally closed with a loss of 371 points. It is important to
mention here that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an
attempt to fill this gap in next 3-4
days which is technically possible then it may come up to 16966, but it seems
that it was a breakdown gap and if it is so then it may not fill it now which
please note. It is into medium term
correction mode, it has decisively moved below its long term uptrend upholding
threshold point of 17000(figure will change for the next day) and
decisively broken its first range of critical support 16955---16707(figure will change for the
next day), all these are very weak indication and its long term uptrend is
in jeopardy now and if it remains below its long term uptrend upholding
threshold point of 17000(figure will
change for the next day) then it may be heading for moderate to big fall in
coming days. However moving down from here its last important and critical
support range would be between 16385---16157---15986.42(figure may change for the
next day), please note that it may stage a bounce back from this range but
sustained break below 16157 will put
the long term uptrend in real danger and sustained break below 15986.42 will push into long term
correction mode and may put an end to the long term uptrend for some time which
should be kept in the back of the mind. But looking at today’s down move it is
likely to break this range eventually .Please note that to keep the hope of long
term uptrend intact or alive it has to maintain above 16157---15986.42(figure may change for the next day) on the closing
basis but it will get some strength or chance of getting back some up momentum
only if sustains above 17000(figure will
change for the next day) on the closing basis. Please note that it could be
the beginning of a bear market and sustained break below 16157 & 15986.42 will be the part confirmation of it and finally
sustained break below 14883.56 which
is a bear market threshold point will confirm it. Therefore these points should
be considered as potential support points.
Similarly moving up from here it will
face stiff resistance in the range of 16800---17000---17275(figure may change for the next
day), sustained move above 17000 may give some
strength for the up move and sustained close above 17275 may help it pick up momentum. But looking at today’s move it
seems slightly difficult to cross this range in coming days instead chances of
moving down looks much greater at this point of time. However its short and
long term pullback threshold point is at 16700.31
& 16928(figures may change), so sustained close above 16700.32 may give mild pullback up move
but sustained close above 16928 may
give moderate to reasonable pullback up move.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert
and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is into medium term correction mode
it is below its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, it is
also below its medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below some on
the weekly chart also and most importantly it is way below some of its long
term parameters and below some of its long term moving averages also, so all
together these are very weak indication and pointing towards further fall ahead
in coming days, provided it remains below its critical points. Please note that few important technical indicators which
were giving positive indication until 17.12.2021 has also turned completely negative
today and it is already negative on the weekly chart for some time, therefore
further fall from here look inevitable off course with in between short relief
rallies, if it does not bounce back above its key price levels in the next few
days. The short and medium term trend is drastically weak and the long term
uptrend also looks in trouble now therefore the overall bias looks tremendously
weak as of now.
In view of the above, it slipped into
medium term correction mode now and knocking on to disturb the long term
uptrend, therefore for safe traders
long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion emerges.
However aggressive can try long trade on decline near the lower end of the
range of 16385---16157---15986.42(figure
may change) but not below 16157.
I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode for pullback gains
could be a risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious and
vigilant in the long trade at this point of time. It is suggested to avoid long
trade for now. It is still in corrective mode; therefore short
trade can be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge
gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but
short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and
vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly
suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near the lower end of the range 16385---16157---15986.42 but not below 16157 with a stop loss of
16100. It is for the
aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near 16790
with a stop loss of 16840. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 16600
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 16650. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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