Sunday, 19 December 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR---20.12.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—17276--High—17298.15—Low—16966.45---Close-16985.20 on 17.12.2021.

Support:16891.70/16782.40/16701.85/16565/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.                                                           

Resistance: -17055/17216.10/17254.20/17326.10/17436.50/17452.90/17489.80/17543.25/17600.60/17613.15/ 17639.50/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/18342.05/18604.50.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It hit a high of 17639.50 and low of 16966.45 during the week ended on 17.12.2021 and closed near the low of the week with a loss of 263.20 points on the last day of the week, closing near the low of the week is a pretty weak sign. Furthermore it has slipped into medium term correction mode as it has decisively broken its threshold point of 17312.82, it has slipped  below its important pullback threshold point of 17212.40 and most importantly it has moved below its long term uptrend upholding threshold point of 16993(figure will change for the next day), all these are very weak indication and its long term uptrend is in question now and if it remains below these critical points it may be heading for moderate to big fall in coming days. Moving down its important support range would be 16956---16750(figure may change for the next day) and then 16380---16150---15986.42(figure may change for the next day), please note that it may stage a bounce back from these range but sustained break below 16150 will put the long term uptrend in real danger and sustained break below 15986.42 will push into long term correction mode and may put an end to the long term uptrend for some time which should be kept in the back of the mind. To keep the hope of long term uptrend intact or alive it has to maintain above these points on the closing basis 16150---15986.42(figure may change for the next day) but it may get some strength or chance of getting back some up momentum only if sustains above 16993(figure will change for the next day) on the closing basis. Therefore the range of 16150---15986.42(figure may change for the next day) is the last very critical support range and finally the benchmark or threshold point of getting into confirmed bear market is 14883.56.

Similarly moving up from here it will face stiff resistance in the range of 17350---17453--17640, moving above 17453 will give some strength and sustained close above 17640 may help it to gain up momentum. But looking at last few days price pattern it seems slightly difficult to cross this range in coming days instead chances of moving down looks much greater at this point of time. 

It is into medium term correction mode now, it is below its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, it is also below its medium term moving averages on the daily chart, and way below some of its long term parameters and most importantly below its critical points as mentioned above, all together these are very weak indication and pointing towards further fall ahead in coming days, provided it remains below its critical points. But please note that few important technical indicators which were weak on the daily and weekly chart for some time, but some indicators are still giving positive indication on the daily chart but price pattern is not supporting which is not a good sign, therefore if it does not bounce back above its key price levels in the next few days then down move will continue with in between short relief rallies. The short and medium term trend has turned weak again and long term uptrend is also in question now therefore overall bias looks tremendously weak as of now.

In view of the above, it slipped into medium term correction mode now and knocking on to disturb long term uptrend, therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion emerges. However aggressive can try long trade on decline near the lower end of the range of 16956---16750(figure may change) and then 16380---16150---15986.42(figure may change) but not below 15986.42. I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode for pullback gains could be a risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious and vigilant in the long trade at this point of time. It is suggested to avoid long trade for now. It is still in corrective mode; therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near the lower end of the range 16956---16750 and then 16380---16150---15986.42 with a stop loss of 16700 and 15940. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 17150---17200 with a stop loss of 17250. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 16955 with a stop loss of 17020. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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