A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR---26.11.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—17417.30--High—17547.70—Low—17351.70---Close-17536.25 on 25.11.2021.

Support: 17452.90/17436.50/17326.10/17254.20/17216.10/17055/16701.85/16565/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.                                                           

Resistance: -17613.15/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/s18342.05/18604.50.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and gave both side swing and finally closed with a gain of 121.20 points. It is exhibiting volatility which is not a good sign. It is still into deep short term correction mode and break below 17312.85 will push it into medium term correction mode, which may please be noted. It is still below its short term moving averages on the daily and below some averages on the weekly chart also, almost below all of the medium term moving averages and also below some of its long term parameters on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does not bounce back sharply and move above at least some of the key points in shortest possible time then the fall may continue. Moving down further its other important support points are at 17326.10---17254.20---16811---16701---16565.60(figure may change), please note that sustained break below 16811 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger. Similarly moving up it will face stiff resistance from its critical points at 17613---17792.95---17947.65---17981---18067---18145---18160---18260---18349(figures may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it has to move above this range and sustain, but looking at last few days price movement chances of crossing this huge resistance range is very slim at this point of time.

It is important to mention here that it is way below its correction completion point of 17875 & 18285.80, its pullback threshold points are at 17451--17482 & 17544 (figure may change) and it is giving whip-saw around these points one day closing above few points next day closing below all the points this volatility is not a good sign and is giving a very weak indication. It broke all the points yesterday but bounced back above 2 points today, therefore if it sustain above these points then it may give a pullback up move may be of a weak intensity, but if it moves above 17544 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it may give slightly better and moderately strong pullback move mind you. The overall short term technical setup is very weak as of now.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is still o.k. for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 16811(figure will change every day). It is into deep short term correction mode, it is below its all critical support points also as mentioned above therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it seems that it may witness an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks, if the technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in deep corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The, short term bias is hugely weak and negative.

In view of the above, it is into deep short term correction mode and also below   its important pullback threshold point of 17544 therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes above 17544 and sustain for the pullback gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 17544 and maintain for some time or can try long trade on decline near 17451 and the near 17216 but not below it. I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time, therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade now.  It is still in the long term uptrend but now in deep correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 17544 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 17500. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near17451 and then near 17216 with a stop loss of 17410 &17160. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 17620---17650 with a stop loss of 17700. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 17451 with a stop loss of 17510. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 17415 with a stop loss of 17465. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.