Commodities

Thursday, 18 November 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR---22.11.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—17890.55--High—17945.60—Low—17688.50---Close-17764.80 on 18.11.2021.

Support:17763/17688.50/17613.15/17576/17452.90/17326.10/17254.20/17055/16701.85.           

Resistance: -17792.95/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18069.25/18210.15/18342.05/18604.50/18778/19549/19575/19639/20390.09/20656.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and moved above yesterday’s close also but could not sustain and started moving down and finally closed with a loss of 133.85 points.  It is into deep short term correction mode, it is below its short and some of the medium term moving averages also, which is weak sign and could drag it down further. Furthermore it is still way below its correction completion point of 18332.70 and also below all its critical points of 18315---18228---18132---18119---18045---17971(figures will change every day) which is highly concerning. Since it has slipped below its critical support range which is now resistance therefore if it remains below the range of18119---18045---17971 the on-going uptrend will be in jeopardy and it will regain up momentum only if it moves above the upper band of the range i.e. above 18315 and sustain on the closing basis. Moving down further its other important support points are at 17613---17452---17326.10---17254.20---16770---16701---16565.60(figure may change), please note that sustained break below 17613 may accelerate the fall and sustained break below 16751 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger.

 It is important to mention here that it could come out of corrective mode if it closes above 18332.70 and sustain, furthermore it is also below its pullback threshold point of 17847.10 (figure may change) which is a very weak indication and if it fails to bounce back above it and sustain on the closing basis then fall may continue with in between short up move. However moving up from here its critical resistance points could be at 17792.95---17884.60---17947.65---17968.50---18069.25---18112.60---18226---18286----18302.75---18332.70---18370---18407---18454---18478---18512---18525---18550---18605(figures may change) and it could react from any of these points and then may move up again or may break down also which may please be noted.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is still o.k. for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 16770(figure will change every day). It is into deep short term correction mode but the pullback mode is still on, but it is below its all critical support points also as mentioned above therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it seems that it may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks if the technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The short term bias looks weak and negative.

In view of the above, it is into deep short term correction mode and also below pullback threshold point of 17847.10; therefore for safe traders long trade can only be tried if it closes above 17847.10 and sustain. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 17784 and maintain for some time or  buy on decline near 17613 but not below it. Please note that long trade below the range of 18119---18045---17971(figure will change every day) could be a highly risky proposition.  I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time.  It is in the long term uptrend but now in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 17784 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 17750. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near 17613 but not below it with a stop loss of 17580. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 17900---17930 with a stop loss of 17960. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 17688 with a stop loss of 17770. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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