A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR---15.11.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—17977.60--High—18123—Low—17905.90---Close-18102.75 on 12.11.2021.

Support:18041.95/18012.20/17968.50/17947.65/17884.60/17792.95/17763/17613.15/17576/17452.90/17326.10/17254.20/17055/16701.85.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: -18342.05/18604.50/18778/19549/19575/19639/20390.09/20656.       

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on hugely positive note and went up further and finally closed with a handsome gain of 229.15 points. It is still into short term correction mode, but it bounced back above its short and medium term moving averages, which is good and positive sign for the up move to continue. But it is still way below its correction completion point of 18332.70 and below its first 2 top point of its critical support range of18245---18165---18060---18028---17970---17880---17860---17793---17613.10---17452(figures will change every day) which is concerning. Please note that it will regain the steady up momentum only if it closes above the upper band of the range i.e. above18245 and sustain.  Moving down it may take support at any of the remaining points and may bounce back also but sustained break below the 17880 will put the on-going uptrend in jeopardy and sustained break below 17613.10 may witness an accelerated fall. Moving down further its other important support points are at 17326.10---17254.20---16701---16691---16565.60(figure may change), please note that sustained break below 16691 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger.

 It is important to mention here that it could come out of corrective mode if it closes above 18332.70 and sustain, but since it is above its pullback threshold point of 17847.10 (figure may change) therefore chances are that it may continue the pullback move and it did after yesterdays wild movement it gave a robust rise today and if it moves above 18196.30 and sustain on the closing basis then it may come out of the corrective mode also. It is important to note here that break below18028 (figure will change every day) will be an alert sign and break below 17930 will tremendously weaken it and finally break below 17847.10 may resume the down move again with an accelerated pace, which may please be noted. However moving up from here its critical resistance points could be at 18109---18226---18286----18302.75---18332.70---18370---18407---18454---18478---18512---18525---18550---18605(figures may change) and it could react from any of these points and then may move up again or may break down also which may please be noted.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is still looks good for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 16691(figure will change every day). It is into short term correction mode but the pullback mode is still on and today’s price movement gave a positive indication that it may continue with  the up move, but it is still below its few critical resistance points also as mentioned above therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicator are still weak which is also concerning and if does not improve it may accelerate the fall in coming days. Since it is in corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at appropriate points for pullback gains but with extreme caution.

In view of the above, it is into short term correction mode but well above the pullback threshold point of 17847.10 which is a positive indication, therefore for safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 18123 and maintain for sometime or on decline at appropriate points or near 17980 but not below it. However, aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline at appropriate points or near17847.10 and then near 17613 but not below it. I caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time.  It is in the long term uptrend but now in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 18123 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 18055. It is for both the traders and could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near 17980 with a stop loss of 17925. It is for both the traders and could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline at appropriate points or near 17847.10 and then near 17613 but not below it with a stop loss of 17795 and 17580 respectively. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 18225---18250 with a stop loss of 18300. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 17925 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 17980. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.