A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—30.11.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—36224.45---High—36347.85--Low—35327.90---Close—35976.45 on 29.11.2021.

Support:35810.90/35531.35/35327.90/34817.50/34115/33908. 

Resistance: -35977.97/36151.95/36525.95/36647/36655.40/36876.35/37140/37232.20/37708.75/37891/38112.75/38377.25/38426/38932.45/39117.15/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important) 

It opened on a positive note and then plunged down sharply but later recovered smartly but finally closed with a meager loss of 49.05 points. It is still into medium term correction mode and break below 35761.25 will push it into long term correction mode, it did break this level intraday today but managed to close above, however it is very concerning which may please be noted. It is below its short term moving averages on the daily and the weekly chart, below all its medium term moving averages and also below some of its long term important parameters on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does not bounce back sharply and move above at least some of the key points in shortest possible time then the fall may continue. Please note that looking at last few day price movement sharp bounce back is very less likely to happen in coming days/weeks.  Moving down further its other important support points are at 35904.10---35359.25---34999---34817.50---34115---33908 (figure may change), please note that it is decisively below its long term uptrend upholding point of 36832(figure will change every day)  which is very concerning and if it does not bounce back above it continuation of the long term uptrend is in question, furthermore sustained break below 35002(figure will change every day) may end the long term up trend and it may get into bear market. Similarly moving up it will face stiff resistance from its critical points at 36151---36525.95---36876.35---37477---37591---37871---37984---38243---38473---40415---40727---41032 (figures may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it has to move above this range and sustain, chances of which is pretty weak at this point of time.

It is important to mention here that it is way below its correction completion point of 38796---39959.70 & 40489,  its pullback threshold points are at 35933---36222---36468---36862.50  (figure may change) it is just above the first point of 35933 now, please note that if it sustain above it then it may give a lame pullback up move, if it closes above 36222 & 36468 and sustain then it may get feeble strength in the up move and if it closes above 36862.50 and sustain  then chances are that it may give slightly better and moderately strong pullback move mind you. Therefore the important and key pullback threshold point is 36862.50 and uptrend upholding point is 36832 therefore it seems that below these levels any up move would be very short lived one. The overall short term technical setup is terribly weak as of now and the potential direction is down now.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term uptrend is in jeopardy  as it has decisively broken its uptrend upholding point of 36832(figure will change every day) on 26.11.2021, which is very concerning and indicates further fall ahead. Furthermore I once again repeat that sustained break below 35002 may end the long term uptrend. It is into medium term correction mode, it is below its all critical support points also as mentioned above which is all the more bad sign. Furthermore, please note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart which indicates that it could seek much lower levels in coming days/weeks (it has already been making new low for the last couple of days) with in between short relief rallies; therefore it seems that the fall may continue if the technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in medium term corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The, short term bias is hugely weak and negative.

In view of the above, it is into medium term correction mode and also below its important pullback threshold point of 36862.50, therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes above 36862.50 and sustain for the pullback gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 35933 levels for some time, else avoid. I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time, it is therefore suggested to avoid long trade now.  Please note that its long term uptrend is in question now, therefore short trade should be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds 35933 levels for some time with a stop loss of 35890. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

 

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 36470--36550 with a stop loss of 36650. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell if it moves below 35890 with a stop loss of 36040. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.