A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—24.11.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—36787---High—37448.75--Low—36647.55---Close—37272.80 on 23.11.2021.

Support:36876.35/36525.95/36151.95/35359.25/34817.50. 

Resistance: -37315.20/37708.75/38112.75/38377.25/38873.80/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important). 

It opened on hugely negative note and went down further and thereafter sharply bounced back and after 5 days of fall and finally closed with a gain of 144 points. It is still into medium term correction mode and break below 35761.25 will push it into long term correction mode, which may please be noted. It is below its short term moving averages on the daily and the weekly chart, almost below all of the medium term moving averages and also below some of its long term parameters on the daily chart, which is a very weak indication and if it does not bounce back sharply in next 1-2 days and move above some of the key points then the fall may continue. Moving down further its other important support points are at 36876.35---36785---36525.95---36151 (figure may change), please note that sustained break below 36785 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger. It did break 36785 levels again intraday for the second day today but bounced back nonetheless it is a bad sign and indicates further fall may be ahead.  Similarly moving up it will face stiff resistance from its critical points at 37477---37591---37871---37989---38015---38234---38457---40390---40700---41001 (figures may change) and to regain the steady up momentum again it has to move above this range and sustain, but looking at last few days of down move chances of crossing this range is very slim at this point of time.

It is important to mention here that it is way below its correction completion point of 38796---39959.70 & 40489, but its pullback threshold points are at 37231---37477 & 37871  (figure may change) and it has closed above first points and if it sustain above it then it may give a pullback up move may be of a very weak intensity, but if it moves above 37477 and sustain then up move may get some feeble strength and finally if it closes above 37871 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it may give slightly better and moderately strong pullback move, but break below 37231 may resume the down move again. The overall short term technical setup is very weak as of now mind you.

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is still o.k. for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 36785(figure will change every day). But it is getting a warning signal for the last two days as this mark was breached intraday. It is into medium term correction mode, it is below its all critical support points also as mentioned above therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it seems that it may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks, as it did today, if the technical indicators or the price pattern does not improve fast. Since it is in deep corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The, short term bias is hugely weak and negative.

In view of the above, it is into medium term correction mode and also below its important pullback threshold point of 37871, therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided and can only be tried if it closes at least above 37871 and sustain for the pullback gains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 37231 for some time or if it moves above 37471 and maintain for some time. I strongly caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time.  It is still in the long term uptrend but now in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds 37231 levels for some time with a stop loss of 37110. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 37471 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 37350. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 37540--37600 with a stop loss of 37700. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell if it moves below 37128 with a stop loss of 37300. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell if it moves below 36876 with a stop loss of 37000. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.