A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—18.11.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—38113.10---High—38456.30--Low—37981.20---Close—38041.55 on 17.11.2021.

Support:37708.75/37315.20/36876.35/36525.95/36151.95/35359.25/34817.50. 

Resistance: -38112.75/38377.25/38873.80/39292.80/40011.15/40160.20/41367.25/41829.60/41965/42036/42222.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and moved above yesterday’s close also but could not sustain and started moving down and finally closed with a loss of 265.55 points. It is into medium term correction mode, furthermore it is decisively and way below its first lair of critical resistance range of 40965—40677---40367(figure will change every day) and also slipped below  Its second lair of critical resistance and support range is 38476---38268---38057(figure will change every day), which is very concerning Since it has broken the second lair of support today  therefore the on-going uptrend  is in jeopardy and if it fails to bounce back sharply above at least above 2^nd lair i.e. 38476 in next 2-3 days then it may witness an accelerated fall. Moving down further its other important support points are at 36876.35---36749---36525.95(figure may change), please note that sustained break below 36749 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger.

It is important to mention here that it could come out of corrective mode if it closes above 40661 & 41231 and sustain, it is well below its short and some medium term moving averages and also below its short and long  pullback threshold point of 38495.45 & 38889.45 (figure may change) which is a very weak sign and if it does not move above it and the moving averages in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it could continue with the down move with short up rally in between. But if it moves above 38495.45 and sustain on the closing basis then chances are that it could still give a pullback rally may be of a weak intensity. However moving up from here its critical resistance points could be at 38495.45---38735---38889.45---39169---39727---40011.15---40128---40160---40247---40537---41027---41149---41367.25---41830(figures may change) and it could react from any of these points and then may move up again or may break down also which may please be noted. Kindly note that now it is a sell on the rise markets till visible sign of correction completion emerges. The short term bias is down. 

It is important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly; therefore one should be extremely alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup still looks good for the uptrend to continue as long as it holds 36722(figure will change every day). It is into medium term correction mode now and below its pullback threshold point of 38495.45 & 38889.45, it is below its all critical resistance points as mentioned above, which indicates tremendous weakness, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out if it remains below it. Furthermore please note that few important technical indicators are also weak and indicating that it could seek much lower levels, therefore it seems that it may have an accelerated fall in coming days/weeks if the indicator does not improve. Since it is in corrective mode therefore sell on the rise strategy should be adopted till visible sign of correction completion emerges. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general as of now.

In view of the above, it is into correction mode and also below its pullback threshold point of 38495.45 & 38889.45(figure may change) therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till it gives visible sign of correction completion or it closes above the pullback threshold point of 38495.45. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 37867 but not below it. Please note that long trade below the range of 38476---38268---38057(figure will change every day) could be a highly risky proposition. I also caution here that long trade in a corrective mode could be a highly risky affair; therefore one should be extremely cautious in the long trade at this point of time.  It is in the long term uptrend but now in correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near 37798 but not below it with a stop loss of 37700. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 38475---38550 with a stop loss of 38650. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

 

Sell if it moves below 37980  with a stop loss of 38080. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.