A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—1.10.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—37677.80---High—37884.85--Low—37354.25---Close-37425.10 on 30.9.2021.

Support:37315.20/37232/37140/36615/36525.95/36317/36248/36151.95/35531/34817.50.

 

Resistance:-37708.75/37811.95/38112.75/ 38377.25/38545/38719-743/38888/38914/39093/39695/40234/40337/40498/40680/40746/40855/41169.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important) 

It opened on a negative note and finally closed with a loss of 317.90 points. It was already into very short term correction mode and today it slipped into short term correction mode, which is a very weak sign; Since prices have weakened, it could correct further from here if it does not move above its critical points in next 1-2 trading sessions. Moving down its critical support points will be at 37322.73(figures may change) ,it is into short term corrective mode and sustained break below 37322.73 on the closing basis could push it into deep short term corrective  mode which could drag it down further with an accelerated pace. Please note that its most important and solid support range is at 37004---36784---36521(figures may change) therefore break below 37004 on the closing basis could be a strong warning signal for long trade and  break below 36784  will weaken it further and finally sustained  break below 36521 on the closing basis could threaten the on-going  uptrend. Please note that it could come out of the corrective mode if it closes above 37940.40 and sustain and if it moves above 38165 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 38377.25 or may go beyond also. Moving up its target points or stiff resistance points could be at 37537---37795.40---37852---37940.35---38112.75---38545---38666---38743---38914---39093---39340---39770---40234---40500---40680(figures may change) it could correct at any of these points before moving up again. Kindly note that moving up its most critical resistance range would be between 39120---39436---39700(figures may change); break above this range will accelerate the up momentum.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is still good for the uptrend to continue. But from very short term correction mode it slipped into short term corrective mode now, furthermore some of the very important technical indicators are giving weak indication. So one has to be cautious and alert in the long trade till the indicator turn positive or it comes out of the corrective mode. The long term bias is still positive as of now.  It is in corrective mode in short term. I once again repeat that if it does not recover fast and move above its critical points mentioned above in next 1-2 trading sessions then down move should continue. 

In view of the above observation, it is into corrective mode therefore safe traders should avoid long trade till the fall is arrested or it gives visible indication of correction completion. It would be safe to try long trade only once it closes above 38165.(this figure can change)  However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 37400 for some time. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair. It is in the long term uptrend but in corrective mode now and one never know how this on-going correction will culminate, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds 37400 levels for some time with a stop loss of 37300. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell if it moves below 37300 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 37450. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell on the rise near 37900 with a stop loss of 38000. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.