A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—30.9.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open—37601.10---High—37923.45--Low—37371.05---Close-37743 on 29.9.2021.

Support:37708.75/37315.20/37232/37140/36615/36525.95/36317/36248/36151.95/35531/34817.50.

Resistance:-37811.95/38112.75/ 38377.25/38545/38719-743/38888/38914/39093/39695/40234/40337/40498/40680/40746/40855/41169.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important) 

It opened on a negative note and finally closed with a loss of 202 points. It slipped into very short term correction mode today, which is a weak sign; furthermore it is exhibiting volatility which is slightly concerning for the steady up move. It could correct further from here if it does not move above its critical points in next 2-3 trading sessions. Moving down its critical support points will be at 37537---37322.73(figures may change) ,it is already into very short corrective mode, break below 37537 will push it into short term corrective mode and sustained break below 37322.73 on the closing basis could push it into deep short term corrective mode which could drag it down further with an accelerated pace. Please note that its most important and solid support range is at 36976---36757---36490---36248(figures may change) therefore break below 36976 on the closing basis could be a strong warning signal for long trade and  sustained break below 36490 and finally  break below 36248 on the closing could threaten the uptrend. Please note that it could come out of the corrective mode if it closes above 37940.40 and sustain and if it moves above 38165 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 38377.25 or may go beyond also. Moving up its target points or stiff resistance points could be at 37795.40---37852---37940.35---38112.75---38545---38666---38743---38914---39093---39340---39770---40234---40500---40680(figures may change) it could correct at any of these points before moving up again. Kindly note that moving up its most critical resistance range would be between 39095---39410---39670(figures may change); break above this range will accelerate the up momentum.

It is important to mention here that its long term technical setup is good for the uptrend to continue. It is in short term corrective mode now, furthermore one important technical indicator is giving weak indication. So one has to be cautious and alert in the long trade till the indicator turn positive or it comes out of the corrective mode. Therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 37941. The long term bias is positive as of now.  It is in corrective mode in short term. I once again repeat that if it does not recover fast and move above its critical points mentioned above in next 2-3 days then down move should continue. 

In view of the above observation, it is into corrective mode therefore safe traders should avoid long trade now in general till correction completion looks visible. It would be safe to try long trade only once it closes above 38165.  However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 37941 and maintain for some time or can buy on decline near 37400 but not below it. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair. It is in the uptrend   but in corrective mode now, therefore short trade can also be attempted after reasonable rise and at appropriate point or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near 37400 with a stop loss of 37300. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves above 37941 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 37770. It is for the aggressive traders and could be risky trades.

2. Sell if it moves below 37770 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 37950. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell near if it does not move above 37941 in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 38050. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gains.

Or

Sell on the rise near or within the range of 38550---38650 with a stop loss of 38750. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.