A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—2.8.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-34698.75---High-34738.75--Low—34445.40---Close-34584.35 on 30.7.2021

Support:34555/34525.45/34410/34374/34357.35/34322/34287/34115.20/33908.95/33625/33371/33306.80/32842.30/32613.10/32465.45/32415.15/32347/32157.05/32130/31783.60/31661/31649.49/31297.30/31264.05. 

Resistance;34635.95/34663/34859.90/34930/34976/35380/35428.15/35491.95/35584.30/35648/35811/35985.25/36248/36455.15/36497/36615/37232/37708.75.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important) 

It opened flat and through-out the day moved mostly in a range of 200 points and finally closed with a loss of 107.15 points.  It is still into very short term corrective mode and today slipped again into deep corrective mode again as it closed below its  threshold point of 34668.50, it is below its short and medium term moving averages ,therefore all together it is on a weak technical footing as of now, which is concerning. Please note that sustained close below 34668.50 may accelerate the down move, but if it manages to hold 34557 and sustain above it on the closing basis then it could still make an effort to give some pullback move. But it will get out of corrective mode only if it moves above 34668.50 & 35495.25 and sustain on the closing basis else down move may continue. Going down it has bed of supports in the range of 34525---34410---34374---34322---34157---33908, therefore till it holds this range there is no fear of sharp and consistent decline. It is important to mention here that it has to move above the range of 35648---35811---35980---36248 for a steady and strong up momentum, if it moves above 36248 and sustain on the closing basis then it could possibly retest it’s all time high of 37708.75 or may go beyond also, chances of happening this seems very bleak at this point of time. Please note that its broad range as of now is between 36248---33908 and it oscillating near the lower end of the range ,so it may possibly bounce back from here. Therefore it is suggested to play the range with the help of above mentioned in between support and resistance levels till either side breakout happens. 

The long term bias still looks positive for the uptrend but it has been threatened by the sharp swing in the prices on 28.7.2021, which is concerning, therefore please note that if it breaks below 34150(this figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis then it could be a warning bell for the continuation of the uptrend. The short term outlook is weak; furthermore one very important technical indicator on the daily and weekly chart is still showing weakness and indicates that it could drag it down again in coming days if it does not improve. So watch out and be cautious and careful particularly in the long trade.

In view of the above observation, since it into very short term correction mode, therefore for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till it gives visible indication of correction completion or it closes above 35186. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 34740 and maintain for some time or can try buy if it holds 34557 for some time but not below it and finally near 34160 but not below it .Please note that in a weak market long trade could be a risky thing and buy on decline could be a highly risky affair mind you. Since it has not yet crossed some of its critical long term averages and overall technical setup is showing extreme weakness, therefore short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday or otherwise corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 34740 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34640.It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline at appropriate points or near 34557 and then near 34160 but not below it with a stop loss of 34400 & 33850. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell if it moves below 34532 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34620. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell on the rise near or within the range of 35190---35280 with a stop loss of 35380. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.