A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—1.7.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-35001-.45---High-35214.90--Low—34730.45--Close-34772.20 on 30.6.2021

Support:34641/34525.45/34410/34374/34287/33990.80/33625/33371/33306.80/32842.30/32613.10/32465.45/32415.15/32347/32157.05/32130/31783.60/31661/31649.49/31297.30/31264.05.

 

Resistance;34893.25/34930/34976/35380/35428.15/35491.95/35584.30/35648/35810.90/35902.90/36248/36455.15/36497/36615/37232/37708.75.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It continued down move for the 3^rd day today and closed with a loss of 238.10 points which is a weak sign. Furthermore its well below its short term rising trend line, below its short term moving averages and some most important technical indicators are showing weakness and indicating as of now that it may have an accelerated down move if it does not bounce back sharply in next 3-4 trading session. Its range for now is between 35380---35050(it may change) ---34525---33908, please note that if it moves above 35025 and sustain then it will get some strength and close above 35380 may resume the up move, similarly sustained break below 34525 will push it into very short term correction mode and sustained break below 33908 will accelerate the down move. It is important to mention here that it will only resume the steady up move once it crosses its critical range of 35648---36248 and sustain above it on the closing basis, else down move may resume again. Looking at the last couple of days price movement it is less likely to cross 36248 levels and sustain at this point of time, however if it moves and sustain above 36248 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 37708.75 or may go beyond also. Moving up from here it will face critical resistance at 35025---35380---35491.95---35648---35810.90---35985---36248---36328---36537---36939---37100---37708.75. Similarly moving down its important support points would be at 34525.45---34374.35---33908.95---33625---33273. The long term bias still looks positive as of now. But the short term outlook has again turned weak again and pointing that it could move down from here. 

It is important to mention here that technically this on-going uptrend is showing enough strength and looking good for the continuation of the up move but this up rally is not in sync with the fundamentals and you are well aware that it is the fundamentals which eventually hold the Priceline. Therefore this on-going up rally may deceive you at any point of time, so be alert and careful in long trade henceforth.   

In view of the above observation, for safe traders long trade can only be tried if it moves and closes 35380 else avoid. However aggressive traders can also try long trade if it moves above 35050 and maintain for some time or on decline near 34525 but not below it. Please note that long trade in a weak market is risky affair and below 34525 could be a highly risky affair mind you. Since it has not crossed its critical resistance range of 35648---36248 and broken the rising trend line and also below its short term moving averages, therefore short trade should be tried after the reasonable rise or can be tried on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)

1. Buy if it moves above 35050 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 35150.It is for the aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near 34525 but not below it with a stop loss of 34425. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 35200---35350 with a stop loss of 35450. It could be a highly risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 34730 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34875. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it moves below 34525 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 34625. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.