Open—14522.40--High—14597.55—Low—14353.20---Close-145581.45
on 15.4.2021.
Support:14528/14467.75/14459.50/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It continued the up move today and
closed with a gain of 76.65 points. Please
note that this up move may last another 1-2 days but a steady and significant
rise looks less likely at this point of time because it is still into deep
short term correction mode , therefore chances are that on-going up move may
exhaust anytime soon also which may be kept in mind. Its most critical points for
the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it
is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the
closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is way below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last so many days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and it seems
that it will last long. Please note that sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium
term correction mode which can last even longer and most importantly sustained
break below 13562.48 on the closing
basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten
the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
It is still into deep short term
correction mode. It is decisively below its short and medium term moving
averages, furthermore it is well below some of its long term parameters and
some technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also,
which gives potential indication that further fall from here looks inevitable in
coming days off course with in between short relief rallies from time to time and provided it does not bounce back sharply above its key points mentioned
above, which seems less likely to happen at this point of time. But the good point
is that it has moved above its pullback
rally threshold point of 14528(it can
change) today and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it could
move up further and could give moderate to good
recovery but here one thing should be kept in mind that pullback rallies
are trecherous in nature and can end abruptly also therefore be cautious and
alert in the trade initiated for pullback gains. It is most important to mention here that its major rising trend line
is at 14390(this figure will rise with each passing day) for 16.4.201 and if it breaks it and sustain
on the closing basis then it could witness an accelerated fall, which may
please be noted. Going up it will
face critical resistance at-14653---14703---14753.55----14811---14840--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the pullback rally may exhaust at any of these points or earlier also but if
it move and sustain above 14888.80
on the closing basis then it could see some steady rise but to get back to
strong up momentum it has to go a long way and move above 15196 and sustain on the closing basis, chances of which looks very
slim at this point of time. Going down it can find critical
support at-14528---14467.75—14375---14350---14264.10---14248.70---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak. Therefore
short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term setup is still holding
up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is in deep short term
correction mode and the overall short term technical setup is weak as of now,
therefore for safe trader long trade should be avoided till it gives visible
indication of correction completion. But since it closed above its pullback
threshold point of 14528 therefore
aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 14528 or can buy on decline
near 14390 but not below it. I once
again caution you that long trade for pullback gains in a corrective market
could be risky propositions and particularly buying on decline. Since it is
still in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on
correction completion emerges.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 14390
level with a stop loss of 14350. It is for aggressive
traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it hold above 14528 for some time with a stop loss of 14480.
It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14750---14780
with a stop loss of 14820. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective
market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell near if it does not move above 14690 in first hour of trade
even intraday with a stop loss of 14720. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Or
Sell if it move below 14528 and maintain for sometime with a stop
loss of 14590. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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