Open—14599.60--High—14697.70—Low—14559---Close-14617.85
on 16.4.2021.
Support:14528/14467.75/14459.50/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a positive note and went
up further but could not sustain at higher level and slipped in the late afternoon but closed
with a meager gain of 36.40 points.
Todays movement showed some weakness therefore it seems that the last three
days up move is likely to exhaust anytime soon
and down move should resume again. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points
now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will
remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is way below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last so many days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and it seems
that it will last long. Please note that sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium
term correction mode which can last even longer and most importantly sustained
break below 13562.48 on the closing
basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten
the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
It is still into deep short term
correction mode. It is below its short and
some medium term moving averages,
furthermore it is well below some of its long term avreages and parameters and
some technical indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also,
which gives potential indication that further fall from here looks inevitable in
coming days off course with in between short relief rallies from time to time and provided it does not bounce back sharply above its key points mentioned
above, which seems less likely to happen at this point of time. The good point
is that it is above its pullback rally
threshold point of 14528(it can change) today
and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it could move up further
and could give a moderate to reasonable recovery but here one thing should be
kept in mind that pullback rallies are trecherous in nature and can end
abruptly also therefore be cautious and alert in the trade initiated for
pullback gains. It is most important to
mention here that its major rising trend line is at 14400(this figure will rise
with each passing day) for 19.4.201 and
if it breaks it and sustain on the closing basis then it could witness an
accelerated fall, which may please be noted. Going up it will face critical resistance at-14653---14703---14753.55----14811---14840--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the pullback rally may exhaust at any of these points or earlier also but if
it closes above 14691 and sustain
then it could provide some speed to the up move and if it move and sustain
above 14888.80 on the closing basis
then it could see some steady rise but to get back to strong up momentum it has
to go a long way and move above 15196
and sustain on the closing basis, chances of a significant rise from here looks very slim at this point of time. Going down it can find critical support at-14528---14467.75—14375---14350---14264.10---14248.70---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term setup is
still holding up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is in deep short term
correction mode and the overall short term technical setup is weak as of now,
therefore for safe trader long trade should be avoided till it gives visible
indication of correction completion or till it closes above 14691. Aggressive traders can try long
trade if it holds 14528 or can buy on decline near 14400 but not below it. I once again
caution you that long trade for pullback gains in a corrective market could be risky
propositions and particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in
corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on
correction completion emerges.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 14400
level with a stop loss of 14370. It is for aggressive
traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it hold above 14528 for some time with a stop loss of 14490.
It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14785---14825
with a stop loss of 14865. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective
market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell near if it does not move above 14698 in first hour of trade
even in intraday with a stop loss of 14730. It
could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Or
Sell if it move below 14528 and maintain for sometime with a stop
loss of 14570. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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