Open—14882.65--High—14918.45—Low—14785.65---Close-14834.85
on 9.4.2021.
Support:14753.55/14653.35/14635.05/14540/14467.75/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14883.20/14888.80/14977.20/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It is exhibiting wild swing both ways and it crossed its 3rd key point of 14888.80 intraday in last two days, but
could not close above it, which indicates weakness. It is into correction mode
and needs to cross the key points mentioned below and sustain on the closing
basis to get into the up grove again else it may drift down. Its most critical
points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it
is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the
closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and despite
desperate attempt in last two days to move above at least its 3rd key point of 14888.80 on the closing basis but it failed,
which is concerning, sustained break below 14336.34
can push it into medium term correction mode, which could last even longer
and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48
on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will
potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will
further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.
It is into deep short term correction mode. It is doing
whip-saw around its short and medium term moving averages but now above it,
which is a positive sign, but how long it will remain above the averages has to
be seen because every now and then it is breaking it, but it is well below some
of its long term parameters and furthermore some technical indicators are
showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also, which gives potential indication
that fall from here looks imminent in coming days , if it does not move up
sharply in next 3-4 days. However it
is well above its pullback threshold point of 14540(figure can change) therefore as long as it hold this level
chances are that it could move up in coming days. It is important to mention
here that, it has bed of strong support from the short and medium term moving
averages in the range of 14770---14700
and if moves below it and sustain then it could go in for a sharp fall. Going
up it will face resistance at-14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the on-going up move is a pullback rally and it can
fizzle out at any of these points, but if it closes above 14888.80 at least and sustain then chances are that it could
move up further (it did move above it in last two days intraday but could not
close above it) and if it moves and sustain above 15198.30 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time
high of 15431.75 or may go beyond
also, chances of crossing 15198.30 level
looks very slim at this point of time. Similarly
going down it can find support at-14753.55---14710---14653---14540---14467.75---14350---14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup still looks weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term bias is
still up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term
correction mode but well above its pullback threshold point of 14540, but for safe trader or otherwise
long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of
correction completion or till it closes above 14888.80 level, because in last 15 days it came very close to 14888.80
level for 5 times and crossed it
intraday for 2 times in last two
days but could not close above it, which gives a very weak indication. However
aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves and sustain above 14888.80 for some time or can try buy
on decline in the range of 14770---14700
but not below it. I once again caution you that long trade in deep corrective
mode and for pullback gains could be risky propositions and particularly buying
on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode therefore short trade can also be attempted
after reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the
down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be
tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup
still seems o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline in the range of 14770---14700 but not below it,
with a stop loss 14670. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky
trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and maintain above 14889for some time with a
stop loss of 14830. It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14985---15050
with a stop loss of 15080. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a
corrective market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14690 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14730. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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