Commodities

Saturday, 27 February 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—1.3.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14888.60--High—14919.45—Low—14467.75---Close-14529.15 on 26.2.2021.

Support:14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.                            

Resistance:14653.35/14753.55/14823.07/14899/14977.20/15069/15102/15165/15257.10/15305/15325/15431.75/15471.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

The on-going pullback rally behaved truly like its character and abruptly ended today and it plunged down sharply and closed near the low of the day with a colossal loss of 452.60 points. Today’s fall gives an extremely weak indication and pointing toward further fall ahead provided it remains below its key points. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It has decisively broken its first 2 key points of 14998.70 & 14888.80 again therefore it has slipped into short term correction mode and it could be painful this time, sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last  longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

The pullback rally ended abruptly today shattering the short term technical parameters which is a terribly weak sign and if it does not bounce back sharply in next 2-3 trading session and move at least above 14695.25(this figure can change downward if it breaks 14467.75 level) & 14754 levels as of now and sustain on the closing basis then only it may give relief rally otherwise it will fall further for sure with intermittent short relief rallies. If it crosses the mentioned points then it could go up to 14836---14888.80---14950—14998.69-15064---15204---15239, but please beware that the possible up rally may end abruptly again as it has ended today. Similarly moving down it can find support at 14467.75---14428---14336.34---14300---14258---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75 levels and can bounce back from any of these points but sustained break below 13981.75 on the closing basis can potentially threaten the uptrend. Please note that the short term technical setup is shattered again now but the long term setup is still o.k.

In view of the above observation it is suggested to avoid long trade in general till correction completion sign emerges, however aggressive traders can try long trade for a possible pullback rally which can happen any time again looking at today’s massive fall.  So they can buy if it maintains above 14467.75 for some time but not below it but it could be a highly risky trade in light of today’s movement. Please note that long trade could be successful once it closes above at least 14695.25 and sustain on the closing basis.  In this context please also note that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly also, which you have witnessed today; therefore be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade for pullback gains. Since it has slipped into correction mode again and this time it seems that it could be painful therefore short   trade should be tried after a reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday down correction or otherwise but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup is still o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy if it maintains above 14467.75 levels for some time with a stop loss of 14405. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 14700—14755 with a stop loss of 14800. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Or

Sell if it moves and sustain below 14405 for some time with a stop loss of 14475. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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