Open—13810.40
--High—13898.25—Low—13713.25---Close-13817.55on 28.1.2021.
Support:13777.50/13721/13713.25/13658.60/13611/13597.50/13548.90/13530.71/13454.48/13399.30/13242/13145.85/13131.45/12919.88/12790.40/12730.25/12607.70/12430.50.
Resistance:13818.20/13981.75/13996.11/14024.85/14046/ 14222.80/14310/14567.27/14653.45/14770/14823/14890/14920/15022/15350/15471/15868/16047.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It has been falling relentlessly for the last five days and
today it opened with a down gap which is still there and if it makes an effort
to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading
session which is technically possible than it can come up to 13930 level but overall short term
technical setup is on an extremely weak footing. Its most critical points for
the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and
as long as it holds these points the uptrend will be intact but it is
decisively below all these points now which is an extremely weak sign and if it
sustain below these points on the closing basis than it could be a potential
indication that it could slip into long term correction mode. Its other key points
are at 14628.29---14370.73---13818.20---13044---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first
two key points of 14628.29 &
14370.73 therefore it is already into short term correction mode. Please
note that it closed shade below 13818.20
and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then it will get into
medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly
sustained break below 13044 on the
closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially
threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
The short term technical setup is tremendously weak and it is
already into short term correction mode and looking at the intensity of the
fall it seems that the correction is
going to last for some time and could be painful too , but the long term trend
is still o.k.as of now. It has decisively broken its recent bottom on the line
and bar chart, it is decisively below its short and some medium term moving averages
and most importantly RSI is showing deep negative divergence on the daily chart
and if it remains below its short term moving averages and critical points for
some more time then the it could go down to 13350 level or much below it in coming days, which may please be
noted. The overall short term technical parameters and indicators have turned
bad and are pointing towards that it may witness further fall from here provided
it remains below its short term moving averages; therefore it is suggested to
avoid long trade till clarity on correction completion emerges. Please note
that it has to move above at least some of its critical points and short and
medium term moving averages to regain some strength for moving up else it may
drift downward off course with intermittent pullback rallies. Please note that since it had vertical
fall for the last 5 days
continuously therefore chance of a pullback rally is on the card and it can
happen on 29.1.2021 also but the
overall short term trend is down but the long term bias is still up as of now.
It is important to
mention here that if it does not break 13713.25 levels even in intraday and
closes above 13958.76( 13713.25 is breached during intraday than 13958.76
figure will change downward ) and
sustain then chances are that it can give a pullback rally.
Moving down its critical support points
at 13777.50---13713.25---13145.85---13131.45---13044.
Moving up its critical resistance points
at 13818.20---13958.76---13981.75---13996.11---14024.85---14123.80---14310---14348.71---14370.73---14481---14567.24---14628.29----14653.45---14753.55---14771---14823---14890---14920---15022---15350---15471---15868.
It is into short term correction mode now but in view of the above
observation chance of a pullback rally seems very likely and it can happen on 29.1.2021 also, therefore those who
wish to take advantage of a possible pullback rally can try long trade if it
move and sustain above 13819 or on
the decline but not below 13713. Please
note that if it closes above 13958.76
and sustain then this rally can extend to 14110---14233---14356---14508
levels. In this context please note that
pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end or fizzle out abruptly
at any of these points or earlier also, therefore be alert and extremely
cautious in the long trade. Since it is in correction mode therefore it is
suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy for now and sell after a
reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking
advantage of the down correction or otherwise but with extreme alertness
because the long term technical setup is not that bad as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY
1. Buy if it moves and maintain above 13819 for some time with a
stop loss of 13780.
Or
Buy on decline if it holds 13713 levels for some time with a
stop loss of 13680.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 13980---14000
with a stop loss of 14035. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Or
Sell if it moves below 13713 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 13750. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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