Commodities

Tuesday, 26 January 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—27.1.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14477.80 --High—14491.10—Low—14218.60---Close-14238.90 on 25.1.2021.

Support:14222.80/14046/14024.85/13996/13981.75/13945/13777.50/13769/13721/13658.60/13611/13597.50/13548.90/13530.71/13454.48/13399.30/13242/13145.85/13131.45/12919.88/12790.40/12730.25/12607.70/12430.50.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: 14310/14567.27/14653.45/14770/14823/14890/14920/15022/15350/15471/15868/16047.     

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

 It exhibited huge volatility and wild swing on both the side during the day but finally closed near the low of the day which is a bad sign and indicate down move may accelerate. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85 & 13981.75 and as long as it holds these points the uptrend will be intact but sustained break below these points on the closing basis could be a potential indication that it could slip into long term correction mode. Its other key points are at 14628.29---14370.73---13818.20---13044---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It has broken its first key point of 14628.29 on 21.1.2021 and today it has decisively broken 2nd key point of 14370.73 therefore it has already slipped into short term correction mode and if it does not bounce back above it in next 2-3 days then the down move may accelerate and it can last for few days. Please note that sustained break below 13818.20 will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13044 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

The short term technical setup is weak and it has already gotten into real short term correction mode, but the long term trend is still o.k.as of now. It has decisively broken its short term moving averages and most importantly RSI is showing deep negative divergence on the daily chart and it has achieved its first target of below 14280(see my post for 25.1.2021) today and if it remains below its short term moving averages for some more time then the it could go down to 14135 level or much below it, which may please be noted. The overall short term technical parameters and indicators have turned bad and are pointing towards that it may witness further fall from here provided it remains below its short term moving averages; therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade till clarity on correction completion emerges. Please note that it has to move above 14485(this figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis to give an indication that the correction has completed or near completion. The long term bias is still up as of now.

It is important to mention here that if it does not break 14218.60 levels even in intraday and closes above 14348.71( if 14218.60 is breached during intraday than this figure will change downward )  and sustain then it can give a pullback rally which may be kept in mind.

 

Moving down its critical support points at 14222.80--- 14024.85---13981.75---13818.20---13777.50---13145.85---13131.45---13044.

Moving up its critical resistance points at 14310---14348.71---14370.73---14481---14567.24---14628.29----14653.45---14753.55---14771---14823---14890---14920---15022---15350---15471---15868.

It is into real short term correction mode now therefore for safe traders long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion emerges but short trade can be attempted. However, aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 14222 levels for some time or can try buy on decline at appropriate points or near but not below 14024. Since it is in correction mode therefore long trade could be a risky affair. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy after a reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down correction or otherwise but with extreme alertness because the long term technical setup is not that bad as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy if it holds 14222.80 for some time with a stop loss of 14200. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky a risky trade. 

Or

Buy on decline at appropriate points or near 14024 but not below it with a stop loss of 13970. It is for aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.  

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 14350---14425 with a stop loss of 14460. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it maintains below 14222 for some time with a stop loss of 14250.It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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