Open—13946.60
--High—13966.85—Low—13596.75---Close-13634.60 on 29.1.2021.
Support:13611/13597.50/13548.90/13530.71/13454.48/13399.30/13242/13145.85/13131.45/12919.88/12790.40/12730.25/12607.70/12430.50.
Resistance:13713.25/13721/13777.50/13818.20/13981.75/13996.11/14024.85/14046/
14222.80/14310/14567.27/14653.45/14770/14823/14890/14920/15022/15350/15471/15868/16047.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
As expected it did give pullback move and opened with an up
gap but could not sustain at the higher levels and went down sharply in the
late afternoon for the sixth consecutive day and closed with a huge loss of 182.95 points, which indicate inherent
weakness in it. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11
& 13981.75 and as long as it holds these points the uptrend will be
intact but it is decisively below all these points now which is an extremely
weak sign and if it sustain below these points on the closing basis than it
could be a potential indication that it could slip into long term correction
mode. Its other key points are at 14628.29---14370.73---13818.20---13044---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first
two key points of 14628.29 &
14370.73 therefore it is already into short term correction mode. Please
note that it closed shade below 13818.20
yesterday and today it decisively closed below it therefore it has slipped
into medium term correction mode and
it can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13044 on the closing basis can push it
into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and
finally sustained break below 12430.50
on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please
be noted.
The short term technical setup is tremendously weak and it was
already into short term correction mode and today it slipped into medium term
correction mode and if it sustain below 13818.20
on the closing basis then correction can last much longer and could be painful
too. Please note that overall short term technical indicators and parameters
are terribly bad and indicate further fall ahead and most importantly RSI is
showing deep negative divergence on the daily chart and if it remains below its
short term moving averages and critical points for some more time then the it
could go down to 13350 level or much
below it in coming days, which may please be noted. Therefore it is suggested
to avoid long trade till clarity on correction completion emerges. Please note
that it has to move above at least some of its critical points and short and
medium term moving averages to regain some strength for moving up else it may
drift downward in coming days off course with intermittent pullback rallies
from time to time. Please note that
since it had vertical fall for the last 6
days continuously therefore chance of a pullback rally is on the card and it
can happen any day but the overall short term trend is down but the long term
bias is still up as of now.
It is important to
mention here that if it does not break 13596.75 levels even in intraday and
closes above 13869.75( If 13596.75 is breached during intraday than 13869.75
figure will change downward ) and
sustain then chances are that it can give a pullback rally. Similarly if it
breaches and sustain below 13596.75 on the closing basis then it can go down
sharply to 13514---13455---13399---13239.55----13145.85---13131.45---13044
levels and then it may stage a pullback from any of these levels which may
please be noted.
It was already into short term correction mode and today it slipped
into medium term correction mode which is a very weak sign. But since it has
been falling for 6 days in a row,
therefore a pullback or relief rally looks imminent and can happen any time
soon. Please note that if it closes above 13869.75
and sustain then only the expected pullback rally can extend to 14038.65---14175.15---14311.65---14480.55---14522
levels. In this context please note that
pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end or fizzle out abruptly
at any of these points or earlier also, therefore long trade for pullback gains
should be avoided. However those who wish to trade for pullback gains can try long trade if it holds 13596.75 but with extreme cautious and care. Since it is in
correction therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade completely and adopt
sell on the rise strategy for now and sell after a reasonable rise in the appropriate
range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down correction or
otherwise but with extreme alertness because the long term technical setup is still
not that bad as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY
1. Buy if it holds 13596.75 levels for some time but not below
it with a stop loss of 13570.It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near at possible sell point 13777
(stop loss 13800), 13870(stop loss 13900), 13981---14025 with a
stop loss of 14050. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Or
Sell if it moves below 13596.75 with a stop loss of 13650.
It could be a risky trade
but worth trying.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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