Tuesday, 8 September 2020

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR –9.9.2020

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—11378.55--High—11437.25—Low—11290.45---Close-11317.35, on 8.9.2020.

Support:11303.65/11289.80/11248/11111.45/11056/10882.                                                           

Resistance: 11325.85/11378/11447/11460.35/11584.95/11633/11694.85/11736/11761/11794.25.

Critical Points moving down: 11303---11289.80---11248---11111.45---11056---10882.

Critical Points moving up: -11325--11390--11447---11542---11633---11675—11761---11794.25.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It has been making lower top and bottom on the line chart; it is below its short term moving averages, way below its major rising trend line and the benchmark point of 11447. Therefore the technical setup is showing gross weakness as of now and indicates further fall ahead in the coming days. But it is still holding on to its important points of 11289.80---11269.52---11248 and only sustained break below 11248 on the closing basis may accelerate the fall else it may bounce back but to resume the uptrend again it has to move above 11447 level and sustain on the closing basis. Moving down it will find support at 11171.55---11111.45---11030---10900----10882, please note that if it fails to hold the range of 11030—10882 then the fall will accelerate and may hit the range of 10750---10600 or below. Looking at some of the technical indicators it is very much likely to drift down in coming days off course with intermittent short up moves.   

In view of the above observation long trade should be avoided now and can only be tried if it moves and sustain above 11447 on the closing basis or on the decline near or within the range of 11030—10882, but aggressive traders can try long trade in the range of 11289---11248 also, but it could be a highly risky trade mind you. Since it is in correction mode therefore as of now it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy near or within the appropriate range or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move or for taking advantage of possible rally breakdown.

It is imperative to mention here that the ongoing surge in the Indian as well in the rest of the world stock market for the last few months is not at all fundamentally backed but purely liquidity driven which is concerning. In light of this instead of caution it seems that there is an irrational exuberance in the stock market now which is even more concerning. Please take my word that at this juncture if investors and traders do not exercise extreme caution and alertness particularly in the long trade then they are surely going to be trapped in coming days. One cannot time the correction but it seems that it is around the corner.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy on decline in the range of 11289—11248 for aggressive traders with a stop loss of 11220. It could be a highly risky trade.

Or

Buy on decline near or within the range of 11030--10882 with a stop loss of 10840. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 11375---11425 with a stop loss of 11480.

Or

Sell if it falls below 11289 and maintain below it for some time with a stop loss of 11350.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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