A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—11.9.2020

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-22466.55--High-22678.65--Low-22225.25—Close-22466.20 on 10.9.2020

Support: 22439.95/22418/22346/22080/21967/21886/21807/21462/21403/21031/20926.

Resistance:22479.85/22866/23080.60/23211.35/23385.30/24240/24364.17.

Critical Points moving up: 22825---22866---23285---23656---24028----24488.          

Critical Points moving down:-2264---22169---22022---21871---21403.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After five days of fall it gave positive close today but that does not exhibit enough strength and confidence that the up move may be carried forward, but the good point is that it is above some of its key points as of now. The key points are 22418---22264(it will change every day)—22169, therefore as long as it holds these points there is a hope that the up move may continue but it may gain some strength and may pick up momentum if it moves and sustain above 22825 on the closing basis else this up move may fizzle out anytime, therefore as of now the key point is 22825. Moving up it will face resistance at 23285---23656---24028---24364.27 levels. Similarly going down sustained break below 22169 can put the uptrend in potential danger and sustained break below 21871 can accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that the technical setup is not that great as of now therefore chance of it drifting down seems strong until and unless it cross 22825 and sustain on the closing basis.  

In spite of the up move today it seems that it is still in corrective mode till it moves beyond 22825, but in view of that it is still holding on to its key points, therefore long trade can be tried on decline in the range of 22418---22264—22169 but not below 22169 or try if it sustain above 22467 but it could be a risky trade. Since it is not showing enough strength in the up move therefore short trade can also be attempted in the appropriate price range or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the corrective move or for  possible rally breakdown till it give visible sign of lasting bottom formation.

It is imperative to mention here that the ongoing surge in the Indian as well in the rest of the world stock market for the last few months is not at all fundamentally backed but purely liquidity driven which is concerning. In light of this instead of caution it seems that there is an irrational exuberance in the stock market now which is even more concerning. Please take my word that at this juncture if investors and traders do not exercise extreme caution and alertness particularly in the long trade then they are surely going to be trapped in coming days. One cannot time the correction but it seems that it is around the corner. 

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy on decline near or within the range of 22418---22267 but not below 22267 with a stop loss of 22140. It could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy if it sustain above 22467 for some time with a stop loss of 22400.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 22825---22925 with a stop loss of 23000. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

Or

Sell if it moves below 22267 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22350. 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.