Open-23119.15--High-23394.80--Low-22876.90—Close-23011.50
on 4.9.2020
Support: 22866/22479.85/22439.95/22418/21967/21886/21403/21031.
Resistance:23080.60/23211.35/23385.30/24240/24364.17/24617/25232.60/25430/25725.
Critical Points moving
up: 23080---23318---23770---24364.27----24612---24880----25120----25432.
Critical Points moving down:-22866---22693---22479.85---22418---22367---22169--21871.
(Bold and underlined figures are most
important)
As envisaged it went down today but still holding on to its two
out of four critical points of 22673—22349(figures
will change every day); but the concerning thing is that it has made lower
top and bottom on the line chart and broken recent bottom of 23385.20 on the bar chart which is an extremely weak sign and
indicate further fall ahead and technical indicators are also confirming it. Please
note that sustained break below 22349 on
the closing basis may put the uptrend in potential danger. Moving down it may
find support at 22169----21886---21403---21031---20926 sustained
break below 22169 can drag it down further and sustained break
below 20926 may accelerate the fall further, which may please
be noted. It seems that down move may continue for some time.
In view of the above observation, since it is in correction mode
now therefore long trade should be avoided till it starts making higher bottom
and top on the line chart or gives a visible indication of bottom formation on
the bar chart. However, long trade can be tried on decline near or within, the
range of 22349—22169. It is
therefore strongly suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy in the
appropriate price range or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of
the corrective move or for taking advantage of possible rally breakdown.
It is imperative to mention
here that the ongoing surge in the Indian as well in the rest of the world
stock market for the last few months is not at all fundamentally backed but
purely liquidity driven which is concerning. In light of this instead of
caution it seems that there is an irrational exuberance in the stock market now
which is even more concerning. Please take my word that at this juncture if
investors and traders do not exercise extreme caution and alertness
particularly in the long trade then they are surely going to be trapped in
coming days. One cannot time the correction but it seems that it is around the
corner.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then
wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can
be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day
squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY
1. Buy on decline near or within the range of
22349—22169 with a stop loss of 22000. It could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 23450---23550
with a stop loss of 23600. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Or
Sell if it moves below 22866 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 22980. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely
of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of
the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT
STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and
exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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Thank you for sharing your views.