A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR –21.8.2020

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-11317.45--High-11361.45—Low-11289.80---Close-11312.20 on 20.8.2020

Support:11270/11239.80/11171.55/11111.45/11056.55/10894.05/10882.

Resistance: 11341.40/11378/11447/11474/11495.20/11614.50/11694.85/11706.65..

Critical Points moving down: 11270---11239.80---11111.45.

Critical Points moving up: -11341.40---11378---11397---11447---11474----11536.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It broke the major trend line (trend line count will move up sharply every day) today which is a weak indication. Please note that it has to bounce back above the trend line and maintain above it, furthermore it has cross 11447 level also and sustain above it on the closing basis in next 1-2 trading session to keep the up momentum going else there would be a potential threat for the ongoing up move and it could correct sharply. The trend line is placed at 11398 for the day;  but looking at today’s movement it seems difficult for it to fulfil the above criteria in coming days, therefore it is dangerously poised and correction looks imminent. Moving down it may find support at 11270---11239.80---11171.55---11111.45 levels, sustained break below 11111.45 on the closing basis may accelerate the fall.

In view of the above observation long trade should be completely avoided for the day and can only be attempted once it closes above 11447 or on the significant decline and in the range of 11000—10929 but not below 10929. It is strongly suggested to try short trade for the day as it seems that down move may deepen. So traders can try short trade on the rise at appropriate price or in a price range for taking advantage of corrective move or on the price breakdown for taking possible rally exhaustion advantage.

It is imperative to mention here that the ongoing surge in the Indian as well in the rest of the world stock market for the last few months is not at all fundamentally backed but purely liquidity driven which is concerning. In light of this instead of caution it seems that there is an irrational exuberance in the stock market now which is even more concerning. Please take my word that at this juncture if investors and traders do not exercise extreme caution and alertness particularly in the long trade then they are surely going to be trapped in coming days. One cannot time the correction but it seems that it is around the corner. 

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY

1. Buy on decline near or within the range of 11000—10929 but not below 10929 with a stop loss of 10880. It could be a risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 11397---11447 with a stop loss of 11500.

Or

Sell if it falls below 11270 and maintain below it for some time with a stop loss of 11330.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.