A BROAD TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM---4.5.2020

CNX-NIFTY

Open-9753.50--High-9889.05—Low-9731.50—Close-9859.90 on 30.4.2020

Support:9687.55/9685.55/9580/9468.75/9390.31/7343/9250/9141.30/9090/9038.90/8981.45/8966/8860/8842.28/8821.90/8801.14/8672.07/8617/8555/.

Resistance:9890/9944.40/9951.90/9958.55/9970.80/10004.55/10033.35/10137.85/10178.45/10276.30/10333.85/10417.30/10490.45/10557.70.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)                                                                       

In the preceding week it gave huge upside move which was not expected and it crossed the benchmark point of 9390.31 and thereafter crossed strong resistance points of 9520-580/9685.55/9687.55/decisively and effortlessly and ended the week near the high at 9859.90.Technically it is looking good as it is still making higher bottom and top on the line & bar chart both, furthermore it is well above its short term and above some of its medium term moving averages, which speaks of some strength so this rally may extend. But it is important to mention here that this pullback rally is already 24 days old therefore it seems that it may have entered the vulnerable zone where this rally could possibly exhaust or correct downward any time now before moving up again. Moving up it will face stiff resistance in the range of 9944.40---9970.80---10200 but if it moves above 9970.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it will open the upside up to 10550 else it may possibly exhaust in the range of 9900---9970---10150 provided it keeps closing below 9970.80 on sustained basis. Similarly going down it will find good support at 9687---85/9390.31/9250/9141.30 & 9090. It is important to note here that sustained break below 9390.31 on the closing basis will further weaken this rally and sustained break below 9090 will signal breakdown and can take it down sharply which may be noted.   

The ongoing rally is very strong and indicates strength and favor long trade, but not to forget that this is a relief rally in the bear market and these rallies are very treacherous in nature and furthermore it seems near the completion so it may end anytime soon. Therefore be alert and cautious in long trade at this juncture or better to avoid long trade for the time being. Short trade should be attempted at appropriate points with proper stop losses. 

NOTE: - The upside benchmark point is 9970.80 and downside benchmark point is 9390.31 & 9090 on the closing basis.

TRADING STARTAGY      

1. Buy on decline but not below 9390 with a stop loss of below 9250.    

    It could be a risky trade.

Or

    Buy above 9890 with a stop loss of below 9800. It would be relatively

    Safe trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 9970—10200  

    with a stop loss of above 10275.

Or

    Sell below 9850 with a stop loss of above 9910.

Or

    Sell below 9390.31 with a stop loss of above 9465.

Or

    Sell below 9250 with a stop loss of above 9320.

Remark: - The long term trend is still down but the ongoing pullback rally is a robust one, however since this rally has entered into a vulnerable zone therefore it could possibly exhaust or go in for deep downward correction any moment. It is therefore suggested to avoid long trade now or if initiated should be handled with extreme caution and care at this point of time. Short trade can be tried at specific point as suggested above. The long term bias is bearish.    

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.