CNX-NIFTY
Open-9323.45--High-9324—Low-9091.35—Close-9266.74
on 17.4.2020
Support:9218.40/9133/9097/9038.90/8966/8860/8842.28/8821.90/8801.14/8774.67/8712.85/8672.07/8553/8537/8461/8327.20/8269/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80.
Resistance:9269.20/9341/9390.31/9460/9580/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40/9951.90/9958.55/9970.80/10004.55/10020.35.
(Bold and
underlined figures are most important)
It exhibited huge volatility during the preceding week after
giving whipsaw around major rising trend line at 9070(see my post of 13.4.2020)
but it finally ended the week decisively above it at 9266.75. The pullback
rally is on and in the daily chart it is still making higher bottom and higher
top in the Line & Bar chart and well above its short term moving averages
too, which indicate strength and possibly this rally may last few more days. But
be aware that such bear market rallies create confidence of the highest level
among the traders and investors and sucked them in to the market and trap them miserably.
It seems that the confidence in the market is at a high now despite the
Covid-19 pandemic, which will have a colossal impact not only on Indian economy
but for the entire world economy financially and otherwise too, therefore it is
suggested to be vigilant & cautious in the long trade at this juncture.
It is important to note that it took 46 days from the top of
12430.50 to fall to 7511.10(both top & bottom day included) and it fell by
39.57% and by 4919.40 points. The ongoing pullback rally is 15 days old which
is almost 33% of 46 days fall and it has already retraced by 1813 point from
the bottom of 7511.10 which is 36.84% of the total fall till date. Therefore as
far as bear rally is concerned which it is, so it seems that it is near its
culmination or exhaustion point time wise and value wise both and it may
possibly exhaust during the week.
It is important to mention here that 9390.31 level would be the benchmark point for the time
being and if it move and sustain above
it on the closing basis at least for 3-4 days then it would open upside up to
10000 but moving up it would face huge resistance at 9460/9520-580/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40/9951.90/9958.55/9970.80. In view of the above observation either this
rally has exhausted when it hit a high of 9324 on 17.4.2020, else the possible
exhaustion point of the rally would be in the range of 9390—9500/9580 &
9685.55---687.55 or else it will exhaust if it closes below 8925 and then below
8820 as of now. It will signal break down if it sustain below 8550 on the
closing basis. I feel if it moves up then the range of 9390—9500 would be
the potential range for exhaustion of this rally.
TRADING STARTAGY
1. Buy on decline but not below 9070 with a stop loss of below
9000. It
may be risky trade.
Or
Buy above 9324 with a
stop loss of below 9230. This would be a
relatively safe option.
2. Sell if it does not
cross 9324 in at least one and half hour trade with a
stop loss of above 9360.
Or
Sell in the range of 9390—9500 with a stop
loss of above 9600.
NOTE:- Please see support & resistance points mentioned above for targets of the trade.
NOTE:- Please see support & resistance points mentioned above for targets of the trade.
IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be
alert in short trade if it closes above 9324 & 9390.31 and be alert in long
trade if it closes below 9070.
Remark: - It is in the bear market and the pullback
rally is still going on. The daily chart still showing strength, so this rally
may last a few days more but since we are in a close vicinity of the possible
exhaustion point first range of 9390-9500, therefore one should take due care
and caution in the long trade. Similarly one should definitely take a short
call within or near the exhaustion range as mentioned and suggested above. The
trend is down and long term bias is bearish.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and
he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter
based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
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Thank you for sharing your views.