CNX--BANK NIFTY
Open-19697.65--High-19950.15--Low-19515.40—Close-19586.65 on
24-4-2020
Support:-19466.30/19409.35/19229/19144/19122.10/19051.95/18820/18703.45/18226/18162.53/17719/17606/17502/17350/17248.42/17143.20/16946/16759/16587/16193/16116.25.
Resistance:-19887/19988/20010/20267.95/20356.50/20444/20681.45/20866.55/21122.10/21462.40/21947/22418/22469/22996.40/23611.10/23657/24240.
(Bold and
underlined figures are most important)
It exhibited huge volatility during the preceding week; it did
cross and gave intermittent close above its crucial point of 20010(see my last
post of 20.4.2020) but could not sustain and finally ended the week decisively
below it and on a very weak note at 19586.65. It has also made lower top in bar
and the line chart but yet to make a lower bottom so watch out for it for
complete weakness, furthermore it has also broken some of its short term moving
averages which is also a weak indication. Therefore in view of the above it
seems that this relief rally has topped out long ago at 21462.40 on 27.3.2020
on the bar chart because after that it did made higher bottom and top but could
not cross this top instead made lower top on 23.4.200 at 20356.50. Similarly on
the line chart it has topped out at 20681.45 on 17.4.2020 and then made lower
top at 20267.95 on 23.4.2020. But to confirm the rally exhaustion it needs to
make lower bottom, which may possibly happen during the week.
It is important to note
that 20010 is its crucial & benchmark point and to show some strength and
steady up move it has to close above it and then above 20267.95 and sustain.
But looking at the price movement during the last week it seems less likely to happen.
In view of the foregoing paragraphs it seems that the ongoing bear
rally has exhausted, but the confirmation of the rally exhaustion is yet to
happen and it will only happen on the line chart if it closes below 19409.35 and then
do not close above 20267.95 on the up move as of now. Similarly for
confirmation on the bar chart it should move below 19051.95 and then on the up
move it should not go beyond 20356.50 even in intraday as of now. It will
signal severe break down if it sustain below 19050 on the closing basis.
NOTE: - The ongoing relief rally seems to have exhausted and to
prove it otherwise it has to move and close above 20267.95 on the line chart
and intraday move above 20356.50 on the bar chart.
TRADING STARTAGY
1. Buying should be avoided as it is below its key point of 20010
and
made lower top also.
2. Sell on the rise in
the range of 20010---20356 but not above 20356
with a stop loss of above 20500.
Or
Sell below 19500 with a stop loss of
above 19750.
IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be alert in short trade if it closes above 20010
& 20267.95 and moves above 20356.50 intraday. Long trade should be avoided
as of now.
Remark: - It is in the bear
market and it seems that the ongoing relief rally has exhausted but the
confirmation of it is yet to happen, but since it is well below its crucial &
benchmark point of 20010 therefore long trade should be avoided till it closes
above 20010 & 20267.95. A short trade on the rise or as suggested above
seems to be a better option at this point of time. It is very important to
mention here that its relative strength in comparison with CNX-Nifty is very weak
on technical charts, therefore it may trigger fall any moment. The trend is
down and long term bias is bearish.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and
he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter
based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT
STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.