CNX-NIFTY
Open-8949.10--High-9038.40—Low-8522.90—Close-8660.25
on 27.3.2020
Support: 8654.75/8537/8269/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/7723.85/7691/7551—39---16—511.10/7422/7241/6825.80.
Resistance:8672.07/8801.14/8996.60/9038.90/9119.20/9269.20/9341/9448.75/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40.
(Bold and
underlined figures are most important)
As envisaged in my last post of 23.3.2020, it did break the bottom
of 7893.80 again and made a new low of 7511.10 it also stayed below its most
critical point of 7946.74 for
two days and then bounced back to end the week at 8660.25. It is highly
volatile and this volatility is going to stay for some time and amidst this
volatility it is very likely that it can break 7946.74 level again and possibly
also break the low of 7511.10 which it made on 24.3.2020. The trend is bearish
therefore in longer time frame it is likely to drift down in coming days/weeks.
However it may witness relief rallies in between from time to time.
The technical parameters
and indicators are still weak but it has moved above some of its short term
moving average in last two days; however it is still well below its medium and
long term moving averages on the daily & weekly Charts with negative
crossovers in some cases which are a very bad sign. But some indicators are in
oversold territory and particularly the RSI indicator is showing huge positive
divergence on the daily chart and indicates that it could move up and may try
to cross 9950 mark and may be above this also in coming days, Chances of which
looks bleak at this point of time, but as long as it holds 8150 and moves above
8672.07 and then above 8801.14 and sustain on the closing basis then this
ongoing relief rally may extend up to 9390 or more, chances of happening this
looks slim at this point of time because it hit a high of 9038.40 today but
could not close above its critical point of 8672.07 & 8801.14 therefore it
seems that either this relief rally may have exhausted or it may exhaust in coming
1-2 days. The present range for it is between 8150---8672.07---8801.14.
It is important to note
that if it breaks and sustain below 7946.74 on the closing basis for
some days (at least 3-4 days) then it can open the downside up to 6800-6850
level which may please be noted.
Since it is in bear phase, therefore sell on the rise strategy at
appropriate points would be the best thing to do till bottom formation clarity
emerges. It is suggested that long trade should be completely avoided as of
now. However those who wish to take relief rally advantage can try long trade
at proper levels (see support & resistance) with strict stop losses. But
mind you long trade could be a very risky affair and can trap you unaware.
IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be
alert in short trade above 8672.07 &8801.14 and be alert in long trade below
8801.14/8672.07 & 7946.74.
Remark: - The bear market is confirmed and I once
again reiterate that this time possibly it is going to be very painful bear
market both time-wise and price-wise. Therefore it is likely to seek much lower
levels from here in days to come and may break the bottom of 7511.10 it made on
24.3.2020 in coming days; therefore long trade should be avoided till bottom
formation signs are visible. It is therefore suggested to adopt sell on the
rise strategy as of now. The bias is hugely
bearish.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and
he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter
based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here is of spot market.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.