CNX-NIFTY
Open-8284.45--High-8883—Low-8178.20—Close-8745.45
on 20.3.2020
Support: 8654.75/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/7723.85/7691/7551—39---16/7422/7241/6825.80.
Resistance:8801.14/8917.67/8996.60/9119.20/9269.20/9341/9448.75/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40.
(Bold and
underlined figures are most important)
As envisaged in my last post of 16.3.2020, it behaved the way as expected.
It did break the bottom of 7893.80 during the preceding week but bounced back
to end the week at 8745.45. The volatility is still huge and it seems that it
is going to stay for some time which is not good for steady and smooth market.
The down gap it created on 6th, 9th &12th March-2020 is
not likely to be filled now, so chances of it moving up drastically is ruled
out. It is already in the bear phase and likely to drift down in coming
days/week with in between volatile pull back rallies.
The technical parameters and indicators are still bad and it is
well below its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily &
weekly Charts and with negative crossovers in some cases which is a very bad
sign. However some indicators are in oversold territory now and particularly the
RSI indicator is showing positive divergence on the daily chart and indicate
that it could move up and may try to cross 9950 mark in coming days, but I feel
that it is less likely to happen because the moving average placement are not supporting
it as of now, so this divergence could be a dampener. But short and volatile
relief rallies from time to time can happen but it is advised not to get
trapped in these rallies. Moving down its critical & important support
points are at 7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/6825.80. Similarly going up it will face stiff
resistance at 8801.14/8917.67/9588.97/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40. Kindly note that if it moves above 8917.67 and
sustain on the closing basis then it may try to move up to 9590, but chances of
which looks slim at this point of time. Similarly if it sustain below 8801.14(it
is below this point now) then it can test or break again the bottom of 7893.80
it made on 26.12.2016 and most importantly if
it breaks and sustain below 7946.74 on the closing basis for some days then it can
open the downside up to 6800-6850 level which may please be noted.
Since it is in bear phase, therefore sell on the rise strategy at
appropriate points would be the best thing to do till bottom formation clarity
emerges. It is suggested that long trade should be completely avoided as of
now. However those who wish to take relief rally advantage can try long trade
at proper levels (see support & resistance) with strict stop losses. But
mind you long trade could be a risky affair.
IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be
alert in short trade above 8801.14& 8917.67 and be alert in long trade below
8801.14 & 7946.74.
Remark: - The bear market is confirmed and I once
again reiterate that this time possibly it is going to be very painful bear
market both time-wise and price-wise. As of now it is likely to seek much lower
levels from here in days to come. So long trade should be avoided till bottom
formation signs are visible. It is therefore suggested to adopt sell on the
rise strategy as of now. The bias is
hugely bearish.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and
he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter
based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here is of spot market.
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Thank you for sharing your views.