A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY---30.3.2020

CNX-NIFTY

Open-8949.10--High-9038.40—Low-8522.90—Close-8660.25 on 27.3.2020

Support: 8654.75/8537/8269/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/7723.85/7691/7551—39---16—511.10/7422/7241/6825.80.

Resistance:8672.07/8801.14/8996.60/9038.90/9119.20/9269.20/9341/9448.75/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)                                                                       

As envisaged in my last post of 23.3.2020, it did break the bottom of 7893.80 again and made a new low of 7511.10 it also stayed below its most critical point of 7946.74 for two days and then bounced back to end the week at 8660.25. It is highly volatile and this volatility is going to stay for some time and amidst this volatility it is very likely that it can break 7946.74 level again and possibly also break the low of 7511.10 which it made on 24.3.2020. The trend is bearish therefore in longer time frame it is likely to drift down in coming days/weeks. However it may witness relief rallies in between from time to time.   

 The technical parameters and indicators are still weak but it has moved above some of its short term moving average in last two days; however it is still well below its medium and long term moving averages on the daily & weekly Charts with negative crossovers in some cases which are a very bad sign. But some indicators are in oversold territory and particularly the RSI indicator is showing huge positive divergence on the daily chart and indicates that it could move up and may try to cross 9950 mark and may be above this also in coming days, Chances of which looks bleak at this point of time, but as long as it holds 8150 and moves above 8672.07 and then above 8801.14 and sustain on the closing basis then this ongoing relief rally may extend up to 9390 or more, chances of happening this looks slim at this point of time because it hit a high of 9038.40 today but could not close above its critical point of 8672.07 & 8801.14 therefore it seems that either this relief rally may have exhausted or it may exhaust in coming 1-2 days. The present range for it is between 8150---8672.07---8801.14.

It is important to note that if it breaks and sustain below 7946.74 on the closing basis for some days (at least 3-4 days) then it can open the downside up to 6800-6850 level which may please be noted.

Since it is in bear phase, therefore sell on the rise strategy at appropriate points would be the best thing to do till bottom formation clarity emerges. It is suggested that long trade should be completely avoided as of now. However those who wish to take relief rally advantage can try long trade at proper levels (see support & resistance) with strict stop losses. But mind you long trade could be a very risky affair and can trap you unaware.

  

 IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be alert in short trade above 8672.07 &8801.14 and be alert in long trade below 8801.14/8672.07 & 7946.74.

 Remark: - The bear market is confirmed and I once again reiterate that this time possibly it is going to be very painful bear market both time-wise and price-wise. Therefore it is likely to seek much lower levels from here in days to come and may break the bottom of 7511.10 it made on 24.3.2020 in coming days; therefore long trade should be avoided till bottom formation signs are visible. It is therefore suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy as of now. The bias is hugely bearish.     

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY---23.3.2020

 CNX-NIFTY

Open-8284.45--High-8883—Low-8178.20—Close-8745.45 on 20.3.2020

Support: 8654.75/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/7723.85/7691/7551—39---16/7422/7241/6825.80.

Resistance:8801.14/8917.67/8996.60/9119.20/9269.20/9341/9448.75/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)                                                                       

As envisaged in my last post of 16.3.2020, it behaved the way as expected. It did break the bottom of 7893.80 during the preceding week but bounced back to end the week at 8745.45. The volatility is still huge and it seems that it is going to stay for some time which is not good for steady and smooth market. The down gap it created on 6^th, 9th &12^th March-2020 is not likely to be filled now, so chances of it moving up drastically is ruled out. It is already in the bear phase and likely to drift down in coming days/week with in between volatile pull back rallies.

The technical parameters and indicators are still bad and it is well below its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily & weekly Charts and with negative crossovers in some cases which is a very bad sign. However some indicators are in oversold territory now and particularly the RSI indicator is showing positive divergence on the daily chart and indicate that it could move up and may try to cross 9950 mark in coming days, but I feel that it is less likely to happen because the moving average placement are not supporting it as of now, so this divergence could be a dampener. But short and volatile relief rallies from time to time can happen but it is advised not to get trapped in these rallies. Moving down its critical & important support points are at 7946.74/7893.80/7832.55/6825.80. Similarly going up it will face stiff resistance at 8801.14/8917.67/9588.97/9685.55/9687.55/9944.40. Kindly note that if it moves above 8917.67 and sustain on the closing basis then it may try to move up to 9590, but chances of which looks slim at this point of time. Similarly if it sustain below 8801.14(it is below this point now) then it can test or break again the bottom of 7893.80 it made on 26.12.2016 and most importantly if it breaks and sustain below 7946.74  on the closing basis for some days then it can open the downside up to 6800-6850 level which may please be noted.   

Since it is in bear phase, therefore sell on the rise strategy at appropriate points would be the best thing to do till bottom formation clarity emerges. It is suggested that long trade should be completely avoided as of now. However those who wish to take relief rally advantage can try long trade at proper levels (see support & resistance) with strict stop losses. But mind you long trade could be a risky affair.

  

 IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be alert in short trade above 8801.14& 8917.67 and be alert in long trade below 8801.14 & 7946.74.

 Remark: - The bear market is confirmed and I once again reiterate that this time possibly it is going to be very painful bear market both time-wise and price-wise. As of now it is likely to seek much lower levels from here in days to come. So long trade should be avoided till bottom formation signs are visible. It is therefore suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy as of now.  The bias is hugely bearish.     

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY---16.3.2020

CNX-NIFTY

Open-9107.60--High-10159.40—Low-8555.15—Close-9955.20 on 13.3.2020

Support: 9951.90/9944/9685/9626/8964/8801.14/8654.75/8555/8148.50.

Resistance:10004.55/10138.60/10289.50/10333.85/10440.55/10447.62/10489/10583.65/10637.15/10670.25/10746.35/10782.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)                                                                       

 As envisaged in my last post of 9.3.2020, it behaved the way as anticipated but the intensity of the fall was unexpected. It witnessed huge volatility during the preceding week, please note that this kind of volatility is not a good for a steady and smooth market. It plunged down sharply on the last day of the week; it opened with a huge down gap and made a low of 8555.15 and then vehemently bounced back and hit a high of 10159.40 for the day before closing the day at 9955.20. The down gap it created for the day has been filled during the day. But the down gap it created on 6^th, 9th &12^th March are still there and if it makes an effort to fill these gaps it can come up to 11244.60/10827.40 &10334 levels respectively but chances of filling the first two gap is looking slim at this point of time but it can still try to fill the gap it created on 12^th March in next 3-4 days and if it does then it can come up to 10334 else it may not fill this gap also now.

It is important to note that it has slipped into the bear phase because it has decisively fallen below the threshold point of 9944.40 intraday, which is 20% correction point from the top of 12430.50 which confirm that the bear phase has begun. However it managed to close shade above this mark on 13.3.2020. The technical parameters are also going from bad to worse and it is well below its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily & weekly Charts with negative crossovers in some cases which is a very bad sign and indicate that the downside is still open and the latest low of 8555.15 it made on 13.3.2020 could be breached in time to come , but the only possible respite could be that some technical indicators are showing that it is in oversold zone, so it may stage relief rally from time to time but in longer time frame it is expected to drift downward as of now. Moving down its critical & important support points are at 9944.40/9685--26/ 8964/8801.14 /8555.15/8148.50/7946.74/7893.80 similarly going up it will face stiff resistance at 10334/10583.65/10637.15. The range as of now is between 10583.65---9944.40---9685---8801.14.

The trend is down and it has entered into the bear phase after 2008 and it seems that it is going to be very painful bear market this time. Kindly note that sustained break below 9944.40 can take it down sharply (see support points mentioned above for the down targets) and sustained break below 8801.14 would indicate that it can test or break the bottom of 7893.80 it made on 26.12.2016, which may please be noted. Similarly if it moves up and sustain above 10160 (on the closing basis) then it can go up to 10334-75 or above. But it can only expect to regain some strength if it moves above 10583.65(on the closing basis) and sustain, chances of which seem less likely as of now. So in view of the above observation it is suggested to avoid long trade till visibility on bottom formation emerges instead sell on the rise at appropriate points would be a better option . However those who wish to take advantage of the relief rallies can structure their trade with the help of support and resistance levels mentioned above, but mind you it could be a risky trade.     

IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be alert in short trade above 9944.40/10375 & 10583.65 and be alert in long trade below 9944.40 / 8801.14 &8555.15.

 Remark: - The bear market is almost confirmed but it can be said more emphatically after 5-7 days. It is very much expected to drift down and likely to break its recent low of 8555.15 in coming days/weeks. So long trade should be avoided till bottom formation signs are visible. It is therefore suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy as of now.  The bias is hugely bearish.     

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY---9.3.2020

CNX-NIFTY

Open-10942.65--High-11035.10—Low-10827.40—Close-10979.55 on 6.3.2020

Support: 10945/10827.40/10782/10746.35/10670.25/10637.15/10583.65/10536.84/10489.75/10447.62/10440.55/10333.85/10138.60/10004.55.

Resistance:10995.32/11090.15/11108.30/11146.90/11171.55/11223/11250.20/11311.60/11322.11/11358.22/11393/11416/11433/11461/11490.75/11549.10/11589/11625.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)                                                                       

 As envisaged in my last post of 2.3.2020, it did came near to its crucial support point of 10995.20, it hit a low of 11036.25 and bounced back to hit a high of  11433 on 2.3.2020  but could not cross the possible rally exhaustion point of 11489(refer my post of 2.3.2020). It finally broke its most crucial support point range upper band of 10995.22—938(closing basis) on the last trading day of the week. It opened with a huge down gap and hit a low of 10827.40 and closed at 10979.50.  Please note that if it does not bounce back above 10995.22 and sustain on the closing basis then it is very likely that it could test or break its bottom of 10637.15 it made on 23.8.2019, chances of breaking the bottom looks very strong at this point of time in coming days/weeks.  

Please note that the down gap it created on 6.3.2020 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4 days which is technically possible then it can come up to 11244.60 else this gap may not be filled now. Looking at the overall chart pattern it seems that the gap may not filled now.

The technical parameters are going from bad to worse therefore further fall looks very imminent. Since it is below its critical support point of 10995.22 so it has opened up the downside up to 10637.15 or below therefore the benchmark point as of now is 10995.22 and if it sustain below it then the next critical support points would be at 10637.15/10583.65/10536.84/10447.62 and sustained break below 10583.65 and then below 10447.62 could potentially take it down to 10000 mark or below also, which may please be noted.

The trend is down so it is expected that it will steadily move down but in between pullback rally would be there but it is suggested to avoid taking advantage of these rallies because it can end abruptly trapping you on the wrong foot. Therefore it would be better to adopt sell on the rise strategy till it gives visible indication of bottoming out. The possible sell point range could be between 10995.22---11175.05 so sell near and below 11175 or below 10995.22 with a stop loss of above 11250 and 11065 respectively. Please don’t forget to trail your stop loss in profitable trade to avoid losses.    

IMPORTANT NOTE: - Be alert in short trade above 10995.22 & 11175.05

 Remark: - The long term uptrend is potentially threatened and the technical parameters also are very weak, therefore it seems very likely that it may drift down in coming days/weeks. Therefore for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade completely till it gives visible sign of bottoming out. But the aggressive trader can try long call with the help of support and resistance point as mentioned above, but mind you that it could be a risky trade. The down move is on therefore sell on the rise strategy would be a better option as of now. The bias is hugely bearish.     

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.