A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY---24.8.2019

 CNX-NIFTY

Open-10699.60—High-10862.55---Low—10637.15---Close—10829.35 on 23.8.2019

Support:10782.60/10637.15/10628.65/10583/10558—550/10534.55/10440.55/10419.80—417.80/10333.85/10198/10138.60/10004.55/9951.90.

Resistance: 10893.25/10929.20/10941.20/10985.15/10987.45/11000/11078/11108.30/11118.10/111171.55/11181.45.

Critical Points: - 10863 & 10882(It has to remain above this to indicate that hope of moving up is still alive else may head for good fall, these figures are valid till 31-12-2019.)  

                                                                             

Long Term Moving Average Range on daily chart (these figures changes every day):- 11437---11138- it is below this range which is a very bad sign.

Long Term Moving Average Range on weekly chart (these figures changes every week):-10568---425---314—044---9928---792---715---582. It is important to note that sustained break below 10568 would be an indication for a deeper fall.

Fibonacci support points: - 10.773.63/10514.07/10459.57/10382.13/10304.11.

Fibonacci resistance points: - 10991.66/11027.47/11281.31.

The trend is down for sure, today it opened weak and made a bottom at 10637.15 thereafter it staged recovery and closed with a gain of 88 points. It seems that today’s up move was nothing but a relief rally on short covering after 3 days of fall and it may not last more than a day or two and expected to fizzle out anywhere in the range of 10882---950---11000 because the technical setup is bad. It is below its short, medium and long term moving averages and short and medium term averages have negative crossovers also which is a bad sign. Furthermore the important technical indicators are showing tremendously weak sign on daily, weekly and monthly charts which indicates further fall is ahead in coming days/weeks unless it at least moves above the lower band of its long term moving average which is placed at 11138(it changes every day) and sustain. Therefore the important range for the market as of now is given here under:-    

1.10863--10882-it has to sustain above it to show sign of improvement.

2. On the upside--10882—10950---11000---11138.

3. On the downside—10863---10568--550(sustained break below 10550 may trigger fresh fall).

Traders may structure their trade with the help of above range; they can try both side trades depending on the price movement because it gives swing both ways. But since the trend is down and it is just a pullback rally and these rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, therefore it is suggested to avoid long trade now instead short call can be tried on the rise at appropriate points (with the help of above range) with proper stop losses till complete bottoming out sign are visible. The bottom of 10637.15 it made today seems to be a short bottom and is likely to be broken in coming days.

Remark: - The trend is bearish and it seems that it is just the beginning of the downtrend and lot of pain is ahead unless it crosses the important points (as mentioned above) and sustain above it. Therefore long trade should be completely avoided and short call can be tried as suggested above, till the bottoming out signs is clearly visible.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.