CNX-NIFTY- AN OBSERVATION BASED ON TIME CYCLE-6-7-2016

IT SEEMS THAT THE ON-GOING UP MOVE HAS MATURED AND MAY HEAD FOR MODERATE TO SEVERE DOWN MOVE

If you look at the monthly chart you will find that it broke down from 8336.30 level in the month of October-2015 on 26.10.2015 and made a bottom at 6825.80 on 29.2.2016.It took 87 days to make this bottom and from there it started the on-going up-move and hit a high of 8398.45 on 4-7-2016 crossing the break down top of 8336.30 on the 85^th day and closed above it but could not sustain and closed below 8336.30 on the 86^th day. It almost took similar time period from the top of 8336.30 to the bottom of 6825.80 and then to the recent top of 8398.45, therefore the on-going up move was not an impulse move but was a corrective move, had it been an impulse move it would have crossed the break down top of 8336.30 in 25% or may be in 50% time period and then it would have moved on for much upper levels. Since it took similar time period in the entire process therefore it seems that the on-going up move has matured and now it may witness moderate to severe correction from here or may be a fresh down move altogether.

In view of the above observation it is suggested to attempt fresh long call only if it closes and sustain above 8336.30 or to be on the safe side above its recent top of 8398.45 because then only a fresh up move may begin.      

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

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