CNX- NIFTY--UPDATE FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM--21-12-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7761.95 on 18-12-15.(Open-7828.90/High-7836.15/Low-7753.35)

Support:-7723.85/7714.15/7691.20/7678/7667/7575.30/7539.50/7422/7311/7295/7119

Resistance:-7817/7840/7852.90/7940/7960/7979.30/7997/8055/

8065.

As expected it gave down correction today but it almost erased yesterday’s gain which is concerning and pointing that this move may be over. As I have mentioned time and again that the pull back rallies are treacherous in nature and may end abruptly also, today’s move was indicative of that. However there is still a glimmer of hope of moving up ,as it is  still holding on to some of its Fibonacci support point of 7715/7652 and also moving within its short term moving average range which is between 7708—7796(it changes every day), furthermore it has cluster of bottoms in the range of 7723--7650 and certain technical indicator suggest that  it may cross 7950 mark, so it can possibly bounce back from here and make an attempt to go beyond 7950 mark in coming days before it get exhausted provided that it holds the said range of 7723-7650. The up journey may not be smooth as it will  encounter resistance from its Fibonacci points at 7766/7817/7879 and from its medium to long term moving average range of 7797--7867---7927--7940--7960---8065(it changes every day). It is therefore suggested that those who are holding long position now should exit trade if it sustain below 7700 and fresh long trade should only be tried if it maintains above 7817 with a stop loss of below 7750.Please monitor your trade keeping above figures in mind for better result. It is advised to avoid short call till it holds 7650 mark. 

It is important to mention here that it is still way below its neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart which is now In the range of 8100 (it keeps moving up every week) therefore it is likely to hit its down target of 7100-6880 maximum (see my post for 14-12-15) in coming weeks/months . Furthermore its technical setup on the weekly and monthly chart is still very weak and  as of now indicates that it may seek much lower levels from here in coming weeks/months after this on-going move get exhausted, but it has to be reviewed from time to time because interpretation will change with change in prices. In view of the above in all probability it is likely to break its major bottom of 7539.50 which it made on 8-9-15 in coming weeks/ months. Similarly it will gain strength if it moves above the neckline of 8100(it changes) and sustain and will regain up momentum if it moves and sustain above 8288(it changes every day), which looks slightly difficult as of now but you never know anything can happen, so watch out.

 Remark:-The long term trend is down. Today’s down correction was huge but it could still bounce back from here and give a reasonable rise till it holds 7723-7650 range. Therefore try long call as suggested above.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.