AN OBSERVATION ON CNX-NIFTY-11-10-2015

AN OBSERVATION  ON CNX-NIFTY

It made bottom at 7539.50 on 8-9-2015 and recent  high of 8232.20 on 9-10-2015, so in 21 days it went up by 9.19% but after making the said bottom it made a higher bottom at 7691.20 on 29-9-2015 and from there to the recent high of 8232.20 it has given a rise of 7.03% in just 8 trading  days, the speed with which it rose in last 8 days may be an indicative of the rally exhaustion before continuing up move again or finally end of the rally. It is important to state here that it is still in long term downtrend and in between sharp pull back rallies like this happens in downtrend and gives a feel of that everything is OK and the major bottom is in place but invariably it behaves otherwise most of the times. However price movement has to be respected therefore as long as it holds 8000—7940 levels it seems OK but break and close below 8129 level will indicate first sign of weakness. Moving up the range of 8195.65---8283 will pose very stiff resistance and crossing this range may not be easy. Furthermore the 61.8% retracement point from the top & bottom of 8654.75 & 7539.50 was at 8228.72 and it has also hit this mark on 9-10-2015 but closed lower at 8189.70. Please note that  the range of 8195.65---8283  is very critical and if it does not cross this range in the coming week starting from 12-10-15 then it can correct quite sharply from here therefore be alert and watchful  around this range specially in long trade so that one may not get trapped at higher levels. In nut shell it seems that the on- going rally may be near the culmination point, if it fails to cross the critical range.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

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