CNX-NIFTY
Open—23700.95—High—23736.50---Low---23451.70---Close---23486.85 on 26.3.2025.
Support:23484.15/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 181.80 points. It corrected sharply today after 7 days of straight
rise. However it is still looking good for the continuation of the up move, but
further down move cannot be ruled out as yet, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap
it created on 24.3.2025 and on 20.3.2025 is still there and if it
makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2—3 & 1 trading sessions
respectively, which is technically possible then it can come down to 23402
& 22940, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then
the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it
will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility,
which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup still looks o.k. for
the up-move to continue, but today it slipped below its most critical points of
23644.80 & 23637.65, which is a weak sign. Please note that to keep the chances of
continued up move alive in the year 2025 it has to stay above these
points on the closing basis, else it will weaken the chances of the up-move.
Furthermore it also slipped into the short correction mode today for its recent
rise as it closed below its threshold point of 23502.64(figure may change). However
it is still above few other important & critical points, such as above its
deep correction threshold point of 23420.02(figure may change) and above
few of its long term moving averages and the last one is placed at 23284(figure
will change every day) and it is above is major rising trend line which is
placed at 23250 for the month of April-2025. Please note that as long as
it holds 23420.02—23284 & 23250 points on the closing basis there is
a hope that it can bounce back and may resume the up-move again. But break
& sustained close below 23420.02—23284 & 23250 may trigger fresh
fall again and can drag it down sharply and the up move may end for a while.
Moving down further it’s major and most critical or make or break support range
is between22798.35---22794.70---22783.35---22775.70---22774.75---22768.40---22725.45,
it could sharply bounce back from this range and may resume the broad
up-move again, but break & sustained close below this range may witness an
accelerated fall. The short & medium-term trend looks up but the long-term
uptrend is still under threat as of now.
Moving up the key resistance points would
be at 23502.64----23637.65---23644.80-----23778-----23893.70----23906-----23964----24080----24205(some
figures may change daily). , if it moves above 23502.64 it will come
out of its recent short corrective mode. Please note that it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80
and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move
in the year 2025, else it may start to drift down, if it move
above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold
to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend
further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23964----24080----24205 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat
will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for
sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415,
it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle
out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.
HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY
CHART:- The downside
target of the pattern was in the range of 21850---21510 and it hit a low of
21964.60, so it has almost achieved the downside target upper band. But till it
moves above its neckline of 23893.70 the downside threat is always there and it
could trigger fall again.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
DAILY CHART;-
It has crossed its lower tops on the line
& bar chart both and on the bar chart it is making higher top & bottom,
it is above all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and majorly
above monthly chart, it is majorly above all medium term moving average on the
daily & majorly above weekly chart, but most importantly it is still
majorly below its long term moving
average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term
uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. But please note that almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode
and with huge positive divergence but in the deep overbought zone now, so, it may correct at times
and it corrected today. But, it is emitting positive signal now therefore
likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction and
till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. So,
please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price
action for the further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart certain indicators has
turned positive now, although it is in the sell mode in the few indicators, but
there is huge positive divergence and is
in the oversold/neutral zone, so it can rally further from here. On the monthly
chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and
with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly
chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and
further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks or months . So keep a watch on the price action
for further directional indication.
IT
IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is
into deep correction mode for its earlier & in short correction for the recent
rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on
decline market now till it holds the range of 23420.02—23284
& 23250 on
the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise
and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective
gains. But for safe traders it is suggested to try long trade only if it moves
above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. All the important indicators
are positive on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode and with positive
divergence.
2. It is above its short, medium
& long pullback threshold point of 22400---22648
& 22983 (figure may change), sustained close
above these points can help it to extend the up-move.
3 It is above all its short-term
moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day
is between 23280----23174----23047----22980---22940---22714(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may extend
the up-move.
4. The long-term uptrend is still
in jeopardy as it is majorly below its long-term moving averages but above few
which is placed in the range of 22403---23284 (figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that as long as it holds 23284 on the closing basis chances of up-move will be good.
5. It crossed it previous lower
top on the line & bar chart.
6. It is above its recent deep correction
threshold point of 23420.02(figure may
change).
7. It is above its most critical
points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay
above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in the deep overbought zone on the daily
chart, so it may correct.
3. It is below its recent short
correction threshold point of 23502.64 (figure
may change).
4. The price action was weak today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23300-----23250 for some time with a stop
loss of 23180 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please
note that it slipped into short correction mode today, therefore trying long
trade in the correction mode could be a risky affair.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23650---23690
with a stop loss of 23760 or can sell if it moves below 23450
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23525. It could be a
risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
